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PCT_ATC

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Posts posted by PCT_ATC

    December Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

    3-11 and you kick an extra point rather than go for 2 to win the game.    Smh.  

    we want them to lose. we want the 2nd pick to grab chase young. .the local homegrown DE talent from dematha!

    • Like 1

    December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, Bob Chill said:

    The big ridge near hudson/quebec can act like a block so even with the hostility going on in all directions the storm track could have some sort of mechanism that suppresses it. Euro has the best version:

    ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

     

    The only reason the GEFS looked ok for a time was a cluster of members dropping the TPV down into SE canada. EPS never wavered with the TPV migrating westward near the pole. Now that the GEFS agrees the encouraging signs have vanished. 

    It's possible that the entire regime abruptly flips on guidance down the line but I've conceded the rest of the month and have no reason to be optimistic into early Jan other than blind hope. Saying that models can't be trusted d10-15 isn't a reason for hope. Models seem to have nailed the upcoming hostile period way out in time and they all agree with the general hemispheric pattern through the end of Dec. Sometimes you can trust long range guidance and imho this is one of those times. 

    thanks for the doom and gloom Ebenezer Chill!  Seriously, I value your input tremendously in this forum.  You are definitely

    one of the top 5 go to guys here. thanks man and have a Merry Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Holiday!  At least now i have one less time consumer on my hands this month :)  

    Is next winter looking like a disaster?

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

    It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees. 

    trying hard to follow here, but its nonsense gobbly gook to me

    • Like 4

    February Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Just now, birdsofprey02 said:

    Thanks, that helps.  I suppose I still have to worry about the plane arriving at our gate though.  Taking the kids to Disney and I’m already nervous about flying with super young kids, delays will be tough.   

    you should be good to go @mco!  wind out of the north 15 to 20 kts   no issues

    February Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

     

    11 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said:

    I don’t fly too often, is there a threshold for flights getting cancelled for ground wind speed?  Leaving BWI tomorrow with little kids around 11am.  Was wondering if the wind advisory will ruin our chances of being on time.  

     

    yes there are, but wind affects  aircraft landing attributes much more substantially.  Cross wind components differ for every type of aircraft.  I wouldn't worry about the departure, Id worry about the arrival phase of flight.  the whole east coast to Chicago is going to be a mess tomorrow with wind.  Here is the TAF forecast for BWI for 14z/11am, they are expecting wind to be out of the west at 280 @ 19kts gust 40kts.  But you are in luck, one of BWI's main runways is lined up directly with the wind  Rwy 28 which Im 100% postive will be the active Rwy for departures anyway. 

    image.png

    February Banter 2019

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    An Apology To @Ji----I've been on the anti-JI bandwagon all season long and you know what, Hes bucked the trend all season and has been generally correct.  I am now as Ji-amistic as JI is.. (at least for this season)  Seeing is believing for. 10 days out doesn't do it for me anymore   I'll be a JI-amist up until the time we are actually NOW CASTING something.

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