dryslot

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. I think CT is in good shape here. We can take a NW or S trend and come out with something decent if worst comes to worst. Just not too much IMO. 

Yeah, You guys are sitting in a good spot, Some just need to keep expectation in check for now, These day 4-5 jacks don't usually end up where there modeled at this lead, But i think your areas in line for a Mod-Sig event.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We still in ens range. op runs are still high variance. Past failures are embedded in my dna lol but I am not concerned, yet. 

You shouldn't be, Going to be plenty of ebbs and flows for another day or two at least, But i think your in a good spot.

You need that s/w down south to stay very strong if your going to run it into that block and get it under LI or your going to get these ENE track around the delmarva.

Going to track further south this time weaker wave, More confluence to the north.

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Stop trying to steal my snow!

PF gets wood when these SLP tracks north thru PWM.

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It hit me at 18z just how far out the event is... I don’t expect a north trend but not even having the system even getting started at the end of the 84 hour model runs is a very long time in model world.  The shortwave could be a beast, or it could be a false alarm... the block could be massive or it could be over estimated.  There’s a lot of time left in this.

The big ones can have great lead time but I’ve seen plenty of modeled huge NNE synoptic storms go sideways at this lead time.

Time will tell, I'm luke warm on this one.

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes.  Get that progged block to weaken a bit...

Either a weaker block or slow the system down to give it a chance to retreat some.

3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Newb question, is the high a bit overdone on the Euro, Reggie, etc. and not retreating thus running the low too far south?

It has more to do with the 50/50 low.

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

That trough axis does look like it would want to amp up.  Damn -NAO.  I’m sure there’ll be a zonked NAM run over like BOS at some point though lol.

I know folks love blocking, I don’t mind a weak one but strong blocks and it’s cirrus typically here.

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Definitely need a few more ticks north, ha.  Still time though.

Keep sharpening that trough and delay it a bit to get it further north, Stronger vortmax will tuck it closer too.

First legit further north track with the SLP, We take.

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Just had to check.  
Since we moved to Maine in 1973, I count 27 snowfalls of 6"+ at DCA.  We (at our then current domicile) had 6"+ on 4 of those occasions: 
1/22/1987
1993 superstorm
1/25/2000
2/12-13/2014.
Missing just the pinky

Yeah, That sounds about right, I knew it was a few, Most of the time the system has occluded or it’s heading off to the ENE as it gets to this Lat

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As long as you can grab gummies with two fingers, all is well. 

I think it’s happenned more than twice though, no? regardless I’m thinking nyc to pwm anyway, we couldn’t care less about dc snow.

I’m sure it was more then twice but not very often, I would have to look back for NYC to here, low track would be East if NYC is snowing so we probably miss more here then not, Usually a strong block and strong HP over QUE doesn’t bode well so I would be in favor of something weaker.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be nice to get a nyc to pwm crusher that gets almost everyone in the game. Unfortunately, someone will always be on the outside looking in. 

Probably can count on one hand missing 3 fingers of when it snowed here and in DC.

8 minutes ago, PWMan said:

I’d be very happy with a couple inches. Got almost completely shafted by last weekend’s system.

I think you would have a better shot then here right now, You wont have to worry about a mix or rain either.

Just now, dendrite said:

I’m in the all or nothing camp. If it’s not going to be big then give me blue sky and SNE cirrus.

As they say, Go big or go home, I don’t see a lot of room up here.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a lot of big hits up here based on the eps individual modeled snow depths at 144hr. We wait and let it play out. 

Don’t do it.

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We spread.

Yup, Pretty uniform.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That is including Monday evening. Widespread.

Yes, This is monday

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Who wouldn’t? 

Dr Dews.

I would sign off on this.

Slower then 0z run too.

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

We want the Monday crap to move fast for midweek, no?

That would probably muck it up a bit.

Trying for a partial phase with the northern stream.

May have to watch Monday on the 12z Euro.