Lot of moving parts, No phase, Partial phase has been the theme so far, Just a much better time to track then HHH, But i know you like the convective side of weather.
Its not totally closed and elongated some east so that would affect it at the surface, Convection always plays a roll as well as latent heat release out ahead on the final track, But were still a few cycles away from the outcome obviously.
Not so sure a full phase with that southern stream s/w would be a completely positive thing for some this early in the season, First model run that tries to interact with the southern stream.
That would be warning snows on that run for quite a few, Maybe a hair wrm to start south of here, But looked to be isotherm thru the column here back to you the whole time without diving into the upper levels yet until we see if it holds and get closer in.