Some of GYX's long term discussion, Makes a good point,
The low is expected to track eastward from the Ohio River
Valley, but there remains discrepancy among the models about
how far northward the storm tracks. Overall there has been a
slight trend toward stronger high pressure to the north
supplying cooler air to the region, while also suppressing the
storm track further south. This scenario would allow for the
potential of a significant snowfall, especially across northern
areas. The Euro and its ensemble suite remain the most amplified
with the system. This is one of the known biases with the model
however, and was on display this past week when the bulk of the
warm air across southern New England failed to reach our area
as the storm was less amplified and stronger cold air damming
was allowed to hold across the area. With that in recent memory,
a solution closer to the cooler GFS scenario looks reasonable
at this point. This still likely brings in a mix and changeover
to rain across southern areas, but northern areas stand a chance
to stay mostly snow.