cheese007

5 minutes ago, Roy said:

Completely dry in north Fort Worth. Another hour and it's probably no go here. Not even a school delay. Dew is now down to 15 IMBY.
.

Looks like there is some backfill happening on radar so not quite over yet. Do agree that things have to change soon for any real accumulations

Very light flurries at UTDallas

Just now, jhamps10 said:

Radar definitely looking more like hrrr than the nam in my opinion.. reports of sleet in North fort Worth at the nws office.

Gonna have to fill in pretty quick if we want to see the totals it was spitting out earlier

Getting mix of sleet and freezing rain in Richardson

EDIT: Stopped pretty quick

Pretty stark case of haves and have nots if anything close to what WFAA is predicting verifies. They had totals over an inch in Rockwall yet zip for Richardson

52 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Radar at 5PM seems showing less precip than HRRR predicted. Not a very good sign.

Betting against the NWS is a fool's errand

38 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

NWS just said they believe the HRRR(X) is a too wet while they favored the WRF and NAM's drier solutions. I always thought HRRR is very good at this range...

Has there been any time in the past where the NAM has verified better than HRRR and NWS called it in advandce? Getting a sense of deja-vu but not sure if it's the lack of wintry precip these last few years driving me crazy

10 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. 

Still amazed about the shift to the NAM. I swear I was only kidding in that last post 

EDIT: Wonder what's the longest area school districts have gone without issuing a snow day? I know UTD has not issued one since 2015 (and have doubts we will this year). Very real possibility that some folks middle school years will not include a snow day, and depending on this coming winter that may be expanded to include HS/college

3 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

That's probably a good plan.. I blame it on the media hype up lol.. I do hope nowcasting changes things though for sure.. the trends right now aren't promising though

The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it

At the rate this season is going DFW will be lucky to even see 1/2 inch

Didn't someone once joke on here that whatever model is showing the least wintry precip for DFW is gonna be the correct one?

Hard not to turn into a total weenie on a day like this 

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

I wonder if someone out between Denton and Gainesville gets under a band and gets close to half a foot or of a convective band tomorrow afternoon. Hebrews totals for North Texas look to be a dusting to an inch. Wish it could make it to E TX but not looking likely.

Would really love for some accumulations locally in DFW. The past couple winters have been pretty sad

Getting an actual snow shower in southwest Austin

Reminds me of last year with bitter cold and hardly any moisture to work with

What day in particular? Have some travel plans for early next week

Getting some decent sleet mixed with rain in Richardson

I'm ready for any flakes at all after the last couple winters. I'd be ecstatic for an inch 

Have had a couple TOR warnings today in TX. Kinda surprising

Got a hailer moving through DFW. Again

EDIT: Few of 'em now. Also Severe T-storm watch until 1 PM

Just got about 5 minutes worth of these with literallly no warning. UTD area

Storm was supposedly dropping tennis balls in Plano. UTD got some brief hail. Biggest stones I found

2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Supercell in Wise Co./ moving into Denton Co TX/ needs attention... Exhibiting some low-level rotation, and its moving into a populated area. Appears that it actually has two areas of rotation.

Even without that it looks to move into areas that were hailed on before. Two rounds of the stuff :/

Looking like DFW proper might thread the needle and make it out unscathed, aside from the far northern exurba

9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Looking like North metro could get in on some severe level stuff before evening is through.

Define "north metro." Out and about in Richardson atm