Drz1111

Finally, and sorry for the post-burst, but I am slammed at work and hadn't been following this at all.  I didn't even look at the radar / forecast until I looked out a conference room window at about 245PM and saw obvious, visible, low-level shear and increasingly deep convective clouds.  I thought "huh, this looks tornado-ish" and pulled up radarscope.

Eyeballs on the ground had a better lead time than SPC.  Forecast fail.

The cell about to cross the Hudson around Peekskill looks a bit threatening.  Pretty much any updraft near the front that can maintain itself is eventually spinning up a low level meso.  Lots and lots of storm relative helicity to work with, and just enough bulk shear to permit sustained updrafts.

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I've always wondered about this. The few moderate days we get usually disappoint and the worst outbreaks I can remember have come on slight risk days.

It's just not their strength.  I count 6 ongoing supercells with tight LL rotation, and the watch was issued after the first tornado was already on the ground.  C+ job by SPC.

Someone could do a nice masters thesis developing a parameter driven index like SigTor that's tuned for the Northeast.

Another crappy job by SPC with respect to a northeastern tor outbreak.  I mean, its not the plains or Dixie Alley, but they can't just use parameters developed 1500 miles away and apply them up here and call it a day.  They do amazing work in the core severe regions but it really falls off up here - I almost wonder if local offices couldn't do a better job.

Broad but reasonably strong rotation on the tail end charlie west of Scranton.  Given storm mode, that’s the cell to watch, especially as it taps into the enhanced shear in the Wyoming Valley.

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM had widespread 2-3 inches...most areas will get much less than that...a blend of the two might be best

Repeat after me:  QPF is the least accurate element of numerical modeling.  QPF is the least accurate element of numerical modeling . . .

Wow at the CC drop with the strongish couplet Just SW of Wilmington.  That’s about as strong a tornado signal as you’ll see with one of these feeder band mini-sups. And at night, too!

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It still has an odd appearance to me, as if there is some southeasterly shear.

I think you're confusing shear with elongation of cirrus canopy in response to outflow channels

11 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Maybe someone can help me understand this. I am looking at the steering layers and see a pretty clear path into eastern carolina - seems to be inline with where the majority of the models were yesterday. GFS moved away from there today and close to the Euro. Can anyone maybe point to something that would be driving it further south contrary to what it looks like in the steering layers of the atomosphere?

 

Steering flow isn't static.

15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I don't follow hurricanes as much as other severe weather so I wasn't aware of their average time to complete. I was thinking it was around 12hrs but with a larger eye trying to evolve I could see why it would take longer with complicated inner core dynamics 

Nope.  Often longer.  Heck, with really big storms that are much more common in the W PAC, concentric eyes can be stable.  There are some great radar images of that structure out of Guam.

7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Yea this EWRC has really taken a while. Definitely could impact the strengthening expected. I'm thinking we see winds down this morning. Eye is going to be huge once it finishes so like David said, may take some time for winds to respond once pressures begin dropping again

Has it though?  People say that with every storm.  EWRC’s often take more than 24hrs.

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Essentially, one of the snowiest humid subtropical zones in North America during the 2010's.

FWIW, the snowiest humid subtropical climates in North America are in the Appalachians south of PA.  West WVA foothills up to around 1500 feet or so in particular - they get around 60” of snow a year because they benefit from lake effect and get clipped by coastals.

The mid-Atlantic versus not mid-Atlantic discussion is interesting - and has a real answer.

generally, “mid-Atlantic” corresponded to land on which large-scale agriculture was possible: put differently, the land that stayed under cultivation after the rural depopulation of the late 18th / early 19th century when most small-scale / subsistence farmers moved to richer lands in the Midwest, particularly Ohio.  As it turns out, the border for commercial agriculture falls precisely into NY: it’s the terminal moraine.  On the moraine and north, rocky soil, often with hodge podge assortments of infertile sands and poorly drained clays, basically made agriculture uneconomic as soon as better land was cleared; south of the moraine, the sedimentary cover of the coastal plain was preserved and commercial agriculture remains viable.

if you go by that line, the south shore of LI is mid-Atlantic and the north shore is not. I’d argue that the parts of the north fork developed on the outwash plain from the recessional moraine count as mid Atlantic too.  Historically and cultural that’s probably the most correct line, though the hamptons pretty clearly have more of an historic affinity to the New England islands (Block, MV, Nantucket) than the mid Atlantic.

geogrpahically, this holds too.  Even further south in the ‘heart’ of the mid Atlantic, the fall line is a significant geological and cultural boundary that, among other things, separates predominantly white rural populations from mixed rural populations.  NYC is where the fall line intersects the coast, also because of glaciation.

oceongraphicslly, it’s a little different.  You’d probably want to group the coast into 3 regions:  true New England, which extends down to the north side of the Cape and is dominated by the influence of the Labrador Current and cold summertime SSTs; the Southeast - south of Hatteras which is dominated by the Gulf Stream and has 80degree+ summertime SSTs and substantially more frequent tropical activity; and then an intermediate zone from around Hatteras to Chatham, with summer SSTs in the 70s.  Seems pretty clear that’s the Mid-Atlantic, oceanographically.

Finally Climate.  By Koppen, the obvious dividing line between mid Atlantic and New England is the border of the Humid subtropic zone:  ie where the mean temp of the coldest month is above 32.  Remarkably, that tracks almost precisely the geographic boundary, with the exception of the 5 Boros which would fall into humid subtropical even setting aside the UHI.  But the south shore of LI is humid subtropical climate and so the NJ highlands and those seem midatlantic; white plains, at least pre UHI and AGW, was humid continental.

so taking this all together:  NJ south of I-80 and the intensively farmed part of LI: south Brooklyn and points east - are mid Atlantic both culturally, geographically and climatically.  Northern suburbs of NY, and all the coast bordering LI sound is a better fit with New England, though oceongraphicslly you could include them with the rest of the area in the mid atlantic.

best answer is probably that most, but not all, of this sub forum is in the mid Atlantic.

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Typically an approach from the South like Lane is the best shot the storm has at surviving.

Lane should miss both the colder water pocket East of the islands and the higher terrain on the big island. Maui and Ohau have some higher mountains, but not compared to the big island.

This is wrong re: Maui.  Haleakala is 10,000ft and will shred a hurricane.

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the euro has a similar looking low pressure system. the south side of it has tornado potential with low lcl's and shear. jfk area:

 

 

Come on forky that sounding is contaminated.  Same with the ominous NAM and nested NAM soundings. 

I got caught in a nasty cell way up in the Sawatch Range today.  Marble-to-nickel hail accumulated to about 2”.  And let me tell you this:  hail that size, falling that thickly, freakin hurts!

The cell was rotating and had a small wall below it.  All in all, a pretty crazy storm for 11:30am.  Normally getting below tree line by noon will keep you safe but not when the lapse rates are as steep as they were today...

Boy, chasing in north central/northeast MT would be fun today.  Storms should spin nicely, be very photogenic and you've got a punchers chance at a tornado toward evening when the LCL's come down.

On 6/7/2018 at 4:27 AM, WesterlyWx said:

From my Father in Law who lives in the Antelope Ridge subdivision of Laramie. Tornado was about 1/4 to 1/2 miles away from his house. I’m 

 

 

 

Sometimes you chase the storm; sometimes the storm chases you.

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Anticyclonic tornado in the Berks? lol

That storm passed over plenty of >2000 ft terrain up on Savoy "mountain".  Who knows what happened there.

Mmm.  Look at that storm south of Tupper Lake.  Must be giving some beavers a hell of a blow.

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Hodographs straighten out quite a bit above 1 km, which would support the elevated left movers. 

But of course still a decent tornado risk from the surface based right movers.

Fair.  I was looking around Albany where winds are more backed, but you're right - this supports an elevated left mover

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It's a nice left mover, so probably still a bit elevated.

Agree.  Looks like a left split but the environment shouldn't support that, big loopy hodos even down there.

Looks like the storm entering Berkshire Co. is starting to spin, albeit weakly / loosely. 

Strong supercell just passed Potsdam NY.

That storm south of Potsdam is quickly ramping and tightening up.  Ain't passing over nothing but trees, but wouldn't be surprised if it were producing already.  Anchored to the warm front but surface based.