Drz1111

IMO even the GFS is showing an ice storm once you take into account that it is global and so underestimating CAD and ageostrophic flow.

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

very rare if that occurs....

Not rare in this set up.  Look at how the isobars are elongated along the front, and how the storm never really rapidly intensifies (at least until it is up in the maritimes).  This isn't really a Miller B or an apps runner, it's a weird setup that is more like a wave with an arctic front passage.

Just now, bluewave said:

This looks like it could be a top 10 temperature gradient for this time of year.

 

And keep in mind that’s the gradient that’s being shown by output from a global.  Certainly would be tighter than that IRL if that solution came to pass.

53 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Eh. We're not talking 36° on globals, we're talking 56°

Dude, look at the gradient.  It’s below freezing in Port Jervis.  It’s not the magnitude of the warmth that’s relevant, it’s the tendency of the strong arctic high to undercut that warmth with low-level cold.

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

not in NYC and along the coast-it's mainly rain with nothing on the back end....6Z GFS is mostly rain as well and then the cold comes in after the precip is gone....UKMET is the only model that shows decent snows for the coast and city.

If you use verbatim surface temp from a global, sure.  But only people who have never learned to read a model will do that.

This continues to have a strong ice signal.

Why are people bitching about the Euro?  It looks great for lots of anafrontal precip.  Me likey.

GFS is bordering on an overrunning event followed by basically a strong FROPA and then anafrontal precip falling into strong CAA.  ICE.

GFS continues to bang the drum for one HELL of an icestorm.  That is like the perfect (and rare!) setup for an icestorm in NYC.  CAD would be much stronger than modeled with a high that strong and the delayed transfer to the coast will let the wind stay NE for longer notwithstanding the track.

Guys you know HECS and BECS and whatever are just made up words, right?  Call any storm whatever you want.  I personally am partially to BOOB (Bombogensis Offshore Over Benchmark).

Read the wiki article you plagiarized.  It’s all in there, including an explanation responding to exactly your question.

No, that is not.  You're just ignorant.  Stop posting.

Jesus Christ.  I spent 5 years studying D-O events.   Please stop spraying bullshit everywhere.   There is no D-O event ongoing, forthcoming, incoming or anything of the sort.  PS I wrote some of the wiki article you plagiarized.

I live in your hood, Kaner. 

My best weather tip after 35 years on the UES:  In big storms go onto the reservoir track in the park and situate yourself near the 85th & 5th entrance on the track, right where the track is perpendicular to the wind.  That gives you a long, unblocked trajectory over the reservoir before it slams into the (slightly) elevated running track, and if the trajectory is right the wind can even be funneled a bit by the old pumping station.  I've verified  60mph+ gusts in big blizzards at that spot with a Kestrel.  

Worst traffic I’ve ever seen in Manhattan.  And I’ve lived here 35 years.  Total failure. 

14 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Based on the storms we had this past March in marginal set ups, I wouldn’t expect much accumulation in Manhattan with this one.

Totally different context.  Insolation now is much lower (akin to late January) than in March.

You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall.  They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location.  That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima.  Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb.  It has always been thus.  Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus.

FWIW, I have a good source down in FL who is intimately involved with damage assessment, and what I've heard is that damage outside of the surge zone is basically bimodal:  built to post-Andrew code:  survived with minimal damage; older construction: obliterated.

37 minutes ago, ZNSTATED said:

Not much more land to cover and Michael will be back over water. I wonder if it will be able regenerate the precipitation shield on the southern half of the storm.

Z

It’s not fully tropical anymore

State College forecast area is just WOOF WOOF WOOF tornados everywhere.

I'd like the SPC to come help me shovel the 6" of partly cloudy out of my driveway.

Pittsburgh has a storm with 65+ DBZ returns going off and another supercell with a hook and strong low level rotation.  Jesus.

Ruh roh. Was that a CC drop with the couplet near Ossining? 

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think the reason for that is simply because there are way way more slight risk days than moderate risk days. Although moderate risk days have a much higher probability of severe weather than slight risk days comparatively speaking, the probability on those moderate risk days is still not terribly high in absolute terms.

I disagree.  While F3 or stronger tornado in the NE tend to happen on plains-style days with an EML and good lapse rates,  weaker tornados are more frequent (duh), correlate with late season warm front events, and are often missed by SPC.  This is what they're screwing up.  Today is particularly bad because we have both a warm front and decent lapse rates.

It's like they forget that in August-October, you often lose the marine layer and warm fronts need to be watched like a hawk for surface-rooted convection.

BGM and State College are not ahead of the outbreak.  There are multiple SVR warned storms with tight couplets, and LCLs are super low.  PA is a ****show right now.

Peekskill storm now TOR warned.  Seems a bit early for that, but given how the storms have evolved upstream, I can see why they want to get ahead of it.

FWIW, the earlier Millbrook spinner had a brief CC drop/TDS associated with it; wouldn't surprise me if there was an weak tornado sucking some leaves.