Drz1111

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Agree... sounds like everything will be turning on the MCS

 

Ehhh. More like airmass recovery.

Keep an eye out for Sunday for some severe.  18Z GFSeses showing what looks like partially-turned-over EML air overhead, more pronounced on the parallel than the old GFS but its there in both.  Either way, lapse rates unusually good for our neck of the woods.  Backed surface winds and LOTS of CAPE.  Not sure it would be surface based near the coast but inland the pattern looks like some of the analogs for Northeast severe.

Lots of supercells in the northeast today.  We weren’t that far from a bit of an outbreak - little more CAPE and we would’ve been in business.  Shear was good.

Kudos to the WPC - this seems like the advance warning got a lot of people off the roads and mitigated the impact. 

How about that robust anticyclonic left mover that split off the Seymour cell?  I imagine there can't be that much mid-level directional shear if the storm can maintain itself so well.

Nifty example of yesterday’s activity creating the low-level shear to fuel tornados today.  Otherwise today would’ve been a hailer.

7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Have to wonder if the NYC metro can make it into the marginal/slight risk not to far to our south and west as the warm front lifts north. Storms holding together pretty well so far as they move into the metro area.

Elevated storms almost never verify as severe unless via hail.  And while some of these storms are showing small hail sigs on radar, nothing severe.

It’s in the 50s with a stiff onshore wind. We’re not going to warm-sector.  Enjoy your non-severe boomers.  Philly gets the surface-based fun.

500-2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE, with some moderate speed shear in the convecting layer and plenty of triggers.  So, it storms.

We’re getting near our convective temp - the SPC outlook is too conservative up here.  

What do y'all think about Wednesday?  Obviously not enough moisture for anything widespread but if something can get going up by the triple point the kinematics are promising.

Guys there is record snowpack over Quebec/Labrador and the maritimes and chilly SSTs.  Of course you’re going to get a big back door season.  

Nasty icing in north adams.  ~.25 and accumulated on the roads too.  No bueno.

Agree, snow just began in lower Manhattan

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing to stop the primary in the Great Lakes from cutting with the strong -PNA/+AO pattern. The only options this winter have been cutter, hugger, or suppressed southern stream. The benchmark track continues to be elusive.

Bad post.  We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm.

If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.

It’s interesting to me that people think of the MJO as an independent forcing.  It’s not.  The tendency of El Niño to stall the MJO over the maritime continent is known and modeled:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016MS000725

The more interesting question is why the effect is stronger this year. Tropical met folks would have you believe the tropics are the origin of teleconnections, but that’s bullshit, the tropics are coupled to the poles just like the poles are coupled to the tropics.  What I’ve been wondering is whether climate change could enhance the “winter monsoon”, particularly in the early/middle winter, by building the strength of the Siberian high.  A stronger winter monsoon would reduce diurnal convection in the maritime continent which would tend to stall the MJO in 5 and 6.

Just now, RDRY said:

We're like diabetics enjoying a spoonful of chocolate mousse. 

But it's a spoonful of chocolate mousse prepared by Alain Ducasse, and its very, very good.

Excellent, once-a-decade squall here in lower manhattan.  Streak of foam in the harbor, SN+.  Yum.

Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998.  This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days.  Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track.   Shit happens.

Im pumped for a nice pac torch.  Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless.  Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March.  This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one.

Neat little areas of weak rotation along the line.  They’re regularly spaced.  It’s some sort of shear driven thing and it reminds me of kelvin-helmholz waves.

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

It's been a much better pattern, delivering two significant snowfalls.  Unfortunately, one hit Philly to AC and points S of there and the other hit areas N of I-80 for the most part.  Doesn't mean the pattern hasn't been way better than from mid-Dec to mid-Jan - it's just that we got a bit unlucky with the outcomes.  It happens.  Will the pattern get even better with blocking developing?  Many think so and then we'll have even better chances than we normally do.  But no guarantees, since pattern predictions are inherently probabilistic, not deterministic, meaning outcomes will also be probabilistic and might not result in the outcomes one might desire.  Like mounds of snow.  

Exactly.  The pattern has been fine, but NYC has been unlucky.  Dems the breaks.

41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

Jesus, you’re good.  I hope there’s a way for someone with your skills to get paid by energy traders or whatnot in a consulting capacity.

Interestingly, 3KM NAM shows winds in NYC and LI stay NE for the duration of the event, so temps stay 32-34.  We'll see what happens but it wouldn't take much to turn this into a nasty ice storm with a NAM track.  Slightly lower wetbulb in the source airmass and everyone NYC north is in business for ice.

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe it will, the Nam was a red flag that is hard to ignore. Meso models are far better at surface temps than globals. 

The ETA is a meso model?! Well I’ll be.  They didn’t teach us that in school.

Just now, pstar3182 said:

Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. 

Guidance suggests mostly ice.  Who's ignoring guidance?