Drz1111

12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs very impressive. Esp on Wed. To me seems to be trending towards Euro like solution. Upper levels still more southerly than I prefer but still far out and plenty of time for improvement. Def a step in the right direction

TBF more westerly than god knows how many threats over the last few years.

Going to be a bit breezy for the chasers out there today with all those inverted-V soundings

Plenty of video of a tornado corresponding with that TDS.  Score one for dual-pol.

Looks to be a TDS with the warned circulation just west of Fort Walton Beach?

Parameters are certainly favorable for low-topped supercells with strong low-level mesos.  And the offshore activity is, if anything, even more robust than what’s on land.  Bit of a forecast whiff, but it happens.

No posts on what looks to be an cute little severe event this afternoon on the llano estacado?  CAMs are pretty enthusiastic about generating some supercells that should be surface-based for at least a couple of hours until they outrun the best surface instability and evolve into elevated clusters.  Not like there's going to be a huge tornado outbreak or anything, but its better than nothing . . .

Isn't this a perfectly adequate look for MJJ severe in the Northern Plains? 

I don't have access to good Euro data, but eyeballing it based on public stuff it looks like there's a pretty big difference between the Euro and the GFS in terms of whether Friday is a viable chase day.

seems like both the Euro and GFS are seeing some troughiness out west at day 10?  I can buy it - there's strong support for low heights in the Maritimes and with the wavelengths this time of year that's not inconsistent with something coming out of the four corners. We shall see.

I think the triple point back in TX looks kind of interesting.  Might stay out of the hair of the MCS and has access to some juicy, highly unstable air. 

Looks to me like a strong cat 2, might be done intensifying due to dry air downsloping off of the coastal mountains of Vietnam.  Either way, an unusually strong storm for that stretch of coast line, normally they get shells that have been shredded by earlier landfalls.

That looks like a typical JTWC "tropical storm" bearing down on Vietnam.

Especially since it took forever to detach from that trough.  Sloppy rainmaker typhoon.

3 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Isn't it crazy how as diligent and prepared you try to be and think you are you have to keep adapting all the way up to zero time.....I booked into and out of Madison WI as it was the cheapest I could find and accepted that I'd have to drive pretty far....initial target was Ravenna NE but it became clear that was out by last night.....so sitting in my hotel room in Omaha I figured I'd drive southeast into central MO and assess visible satellite once I got to around Marshall......so when I pulled off 70 into a fireworks station - they love their fireworks in MO apparently - the sun was obscured quite a bit so I fired up COD weather and visible was just coming in and it looked like a good spot might be Ashland - about 40 miles more east and south.....so I bolted but couldn't find a decent public spot there so went back to Columbia and found an awesome soccer field full of folks with wide open 360 views......sun was only behind light haze.....which didn't matter in the end and the 2.5 minute experience - all of it really - was totally worth it......I'm hooked

Yeah, I think that unless you're going to a desert (or semi-desert), booking travel to a specific 'spot' for an eclipse is an extremely high-risk idea.  Better to target a region where you have good mobility within the totality stripe and then make a decision night before as to where you'll be targeting.  Not entirely unlike storm chasing.

I planned my entire trip within 10 days of the eclipse and had a near-perfect experience.  A colleague of mine booked some special camping thing a year in advance and got clouded out.   Really, you're 'clear skies' chasing, not eclipse chasing.

I flew into Des Moines, with a return flight scheduled from Omaha, intending to target south of Lincoln.

about 5 days ago, it became clear that was a high risk idea.  I changed my return flight to Denver and changed my target zone to Grand Island.

about 2 days ago, it became clear that wasn't going to work either.  Luckily, a hotel opened up in Gothenburg, about 25 minutes east of  North Platte.

Yesterday, it became clear I was too far east.  So I woke up at 4:45 and bolted west. I ended up north of Torrington, WY...and it was SPECTACULAR.  Found an elevated bluff on open prairie and could see 20 miles away in every direction but North.   Not a cloud in the sky.  Perfect, perfect conditions.  A steep temperature drop during totality.  Gorgeous.  

Then, while waiting for traffic to clear, I bagged Medicine Bow Peak, which was always on my list.  It was a very good day.

Looks to be some tornados ongoing now.  LLJ FTW.

47 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Kind of underwhelmed right now. Surface obs across the New Mexico side of the watch show meager low-level moisture, with dew-points mainly in the 40s (and dropping at many sites). Mesoanalysis shows soaring LCLs and decreasing CAPE. 

A more bonafide tornado threat may not develop until after 00z as the low-level jet cranks and better boundary layer moisture backs westward. 

If the Clovis vicinity cell can hang on and eventually ingest richer quality low-level moisture, maybe then it can better organize. 

Any sig/long-track tornado threat seems highly conditional, unless something goes up soon across West Texas, or if low-level jet-aided moisture transport leads to modest airmass recovery across eastern New Mexico this evening. Such recovery seems fairly unlikely, although HRRR continues to show rapid moisture advection by 00-02z.

This.  The cells look starved both of moisture and low-level vorticity.

Man, the HRRR loves that SE NM / West Texas zone around dusk, when the SE low level flow amps up.  SPC seeing it too, of course, but that's a pretty interesting setup.

9 hours ago, SmokeEater said:

The monster, pic from Marcus Diaz. Whole damn meso is on the ground.

Based on what was posted to YouTube this AM, lots of the chasers on the first tornado ended up on the wrong side of the rain shaft wrapping around the wedge.  Diaz's 45 second teaser is easily the best video of the big one.

Looks like a wet and windy day for some giant cloud rats.

44 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

nonevent in terms of what?  even if the eyewall crosses the coast in an area of sparse population the circulation is large and it will likely dump a ton of rain, causing flooding and mudslides.  i wouldn't downplay it yet.

Flooding and mudslides that affect who?  This is unpopulated coast for a reason.

1) this cyclone likely will be a nonevent, assuming it makes landfall on the effectively unpopulated coast of Luzon.  Weather porn in the best way.

2) surprised this has gotten so strong with what looks like middling ventilation on the north side of the storm

Only piece of guidance that far west.. I'm glad it's the nam lol. What trash

Well, and the Euro.   EE rule. 

My ex is a reporter for 33/40 out of Birmingham. Yikes.

I think that people who get C-range grades in calc and complain about difficulty finding a job are being a tad willfully blind. When I was in grad school (for a related, but not precisely atmospheric science field), I helped review apps for our program: basically, they used grad students to make the first cut.

And here's what I learned: there are a lot of folks with strong interests in meteorology AND excellent grades in all classes, including the various core math classes.

I guess what I am trying to say is, if you don't have a 3.5 or better in your major AND core classes as an undergrad, you should find a different career, because there are literally hundreds of more qualified people in line ahead of you for grad school and jobs. Exception maybe if you went to MIT or something and got owned in a math class by a bunch of prodigies, but let me put it this way: if its not immediately apparent from your record why you are TALENTED in the field rather than just enthusiastic, you're going to get tossed in the reject pile before someone important even gets to see your applications/resume/CV.

Also, everyone gets good grades in their Masters programs b/c thats just how Masters programs are. There's no curve, no "winnowing out" classes, and showing any effort will get you a B. Employers know this and will take grades in a graduate program with a very large grain of salt. The two things that matter for finding a job or getting into another graduate or postdoc program are: (1) recommendation/word of a professor (2) undergraduate grades. (3) is probably how you interview, (4) is if the guy doing the hiring was in a good mood when he read your app, and bottom of the list is graduate grades. Everyone knows they are a joke.