ROOSTA

Day Ater Tomorrow.
On the precipice of EPIC PROPORTIONS.    

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We get at least one of these runs a year. 

 

That's what you call a tease.
Verify every decade or so.
Pattern looks locked in, expect miracles  

To sedate "our" fix. Model agreement would be the next step. 
Predict this thread will surpass 200 pages.

Expect changes?
Understatement of the model run and without question accurate.
Sure, does look nice thought.  

BOMBS AWAY
Need this to be inside D5.
As is I might get to a flurry. "The road is long with many a winding turn."  
Looking mighty fine!

12z HRRR

Initialized 

To t 49

Not much gain in the snow department.
NEXT

8 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Someone told me breakfast was ready.

Just bend-over easy. I mean break 'em easy.
It's officially a Big-Dog Zeus is in the house! 

George001, Slow down buddy. You're getting way out ahead of your skies. Odds of verification <10%.

There's about 30 model runs before it should be taken seriously. Strong signal, yes but all your doing is setting yourself up for a let-down.
Read more, play the devil's advocate, ask self what could go wrong? Play it conservatively till it's inside D5.     

The big ones most always present themselves with a huge signal even in LaLa Land.
Anything close to verifying would be Major...details to be worked out. 

Just looked at the 12z GFS. Looks like some good frontogenesis at the height of passage. Temps look a bit high at 850, 925 include surface out to about ORH, that could be where the CF sets-up. Surface reflection tracking a little too far N and W but might be enough time to correct for a score.
Going to be close. haves to have nots with a huge gradient. 

Appears there is still hope for the Coastal Plain. 
Trends look promising.
I only have a frontal passage with what their calling a temperature "plunge" 80 to 65F.
A slight chance of severe mid-day tomorrow.

12z NAM

A little Paintshop Fun

For the sanity of many a whiff could be the best medicine.
Blasphemy! 
Just accept if you don't have a combo of LAT and elevation this isn't the storm.

NEXT

Personal observations analyzing R2R models. Comparing knowing the individual bias of each.
ML's are torch city ATT. Parent Low doesn't transfer the energy in time to get the Coastal cranking.
 #1 Rule on Miller B's (circa 2010) Somebody is always going to get screwed.
 #2 As long as it's not a Miller Lite
Discussed Ad nauseum.
 Miller A vs Miller B - New England - American Weather (americanwx.com)

It's going to be a lonnnggg week ahead.
The emotional Roller-coaster of despair to elation. The "storm" is exactly why it's the best group of Weeners out there and when this forum shines.
I'll state the obvious. Go ensembles, watch the trends AND avoid the pissin as-to-say from the OP's until Wednesday.
Let the freak flags fly. Read more from the METS, try to keep the IMBY bellyaching to a minimum.

It doesn't look bad for a crush-job.  

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you look at relative humidity at 7H you can see how it just stays dry over Nashua / NE mass while the pike area gets to 90-95% RH 

And there you'll find the nice 3-6" accumulations, maybe a lolli or two, max in around 8" probably somewhere in Tolland County. Wanna bet?
It has never snowed where I live. I find that hard to believe because flurries have been recorded in the Keys.

All I want for the Holidays is a flurry. Y'all are spoiled 

A LITTLE DRY OUT THERE. Teens and twenties.
Question is: Does the column saturate in EMA? 

With that OES banding in PLY County. I can recall cweat going from exit-to-exit reporting conditions. Some white lawns down that-away!
 

The obligatory weenie snow map

Latest HRRR

Great pictures many familiar, many have never met. Someday... one of the first gtg was on CC for Noel in Oct, 2007. Combo gathering and chase. Always good times meeting!
Meanwhile bring on WINTER.  

Any SNOW is good SNOW!
I'd be going to the GTG in a heartbeat only if I lived 1k miles closer.
Today I can envision the uproar when the 12z comes rolling in reminiscent to the gathering in the South-end of Boston years ago, (almost booted out) LOL  

December rarely delivers the goodies. Disappointment waits for those who think so. It's more a transition Month for most of the time in the three southern states.
Cashing-in Winter because of a bad early start? All it will take is one or two blockbusters in a 6–8-week timeframe. I used to despise the 1-3" pinpricks, hours of wasted time for what? 
Someone should post soundings for assorted cities by model and run time.
First place, well maybe second or third place in a storm threat to look at. Crunch time it's soundings less the slam-dunks.   

Multiple threats going forth, staggered sleeping, run to run nuances to diagnose, TILL FURTHER NOTICE! 
There's a widespread big one in there. Probably before the New Year.
Great looking pattern for New England.

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a lot of disturbing behavior on here.

So much, more and more as the years pass. Almost as if "why bother posting anything useful?"
Such are the times of free speech. 
Other than that,..

IT GON SNOW 
maybe, might, could it be. I'll awake when the 1ft'r threatens.

Oh, by the way it was 80F here today.
I gots to move!  

Stakes rising with every model run. In years past many a threat has come and gone. I'm getting antsy!
Seems the time invested (Climo Winter) 3 months' worth of... just doesn't seem to pay off. 
One can surmise "winter" is a month's timeframe. Early Jan. to mid Feb., and for myself it's always been the chase, still holding on to my bias.
I'm ready, going forth (curse of death) may "we" all get the fix we deserve and want.