ROOSTA

Instead of waiting, wanting, wishing for first snow.
Y'all (I think that's how to say it) come on down to the Cape and watch the most powerful rocket launch into the heavens.
It's 60 miles to my ESE. Put it on your bucket list, most assured you will not be disappointed.
  
Appearing first snows for most is going to have to wait. This is not the event.   

As in Spring also in Fall, elevation will be a determining factor as a general rule.

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The strong side of this eye is about to hit the Cape (Space coast) in about 2h from now, would say the eye is now 60% inland with the center about 20 miles south of Melbourne FL. 

Wind gusted to 100mph. atop Artemis.
I'm getting frequent gusts in the 60 range. Oh, that sound a ferocity greater than Ian. Power going out all over the place. 

TS wind field. HUGE
On the current forecasted track my location will be in the RFQ for an extended period of time. I'm about 40miles W. abeam of DAB. Already observing gusts in the 30mph range 

GOES-EAST MESO1 PSeUdo-Color LOOP (psu.edu)

One-minute close-up animation.
Getting its act together! Not good.
Depending on how strong Nicole gets, being so big to begin with...
Can the inner core stay intact longer after LF being so insulated? Bueller?
Any case studies or examples.

GFS 18z: 
Looks tropical, looks like it has an eye. 
The worst-case scenario for East Central Florida.
Thankfully a week out.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That has shown up a couple of times for around Nov 12.   If it is still appearing in a week maybe get a thread going for it...  good luck 

I'll still be basking in the 80's. Always a thrill to see at least the threat.
Transitional Seasons are the best.
I don't think the tropics are done.   

DO NOT LOOK AT THE L/R OPERATIONAL GFS.

And so it begins, a threat of snow over a wide area in SNE. 
Should garner a topic thread if subsequent runs continue to show.

I got lucky. Untouched only 18hrs without power.

10 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

My guess is most of Tampa Bay is under water, either from tidal flooding, or from tremendous rainfall. All that rain has no where to go, leaving streets flooded, even away from the shore.

 

The exact opposite. Tampa Bay emptied out.

Not confirmed but reported on local TV station, gusts near LF in the 170 range. Water rescues everywhere.
Moving into feeder band right now. This is knocking power out... see you's all on the otherside.
New Smyrna Beach 74G in the last hour.   

Reverse Surge, Tampa Bay emptied out. What?
First strong feeder band knocking.
Highest recorded gust 135mph. 4th strongest hurricane in history to hit the US.

I'm already gusting into the 30 range. I think my IP address has been blocked from desktop? 

2 feet of rain inbound. As ready as I'm ever going to be.

No propane, no gasoline, water flying off the shelves. Highways jammed and then you have the yahoo's who are oblivious and stay even along the coast, D'OH
I fear the power will be gone for days. Irma was 6 days prompting a generator purchase. This is going to be stronger, longer.
I'm glad the latest are going S. A few runs back tracking right overhead. AFD has 100+ gusts, isolated 24"+ in wordage with a lot of extremes to boot.
Venice to Daytona Beach. In at 140 out at 40  

People get more upset about "their" The Second Amendment Rights then they do about "their" First.
I digress.
Ian's general movement since entering the Gulf is approx. (per radar) at 16.3 degrees which if extrapolated places LF just S of Venice.  

The width is expanding. Whom ever gets into the eyewall is in for a wild ride, damaging too. So wide the State is becoming dwarfed. Not often do you see H force winds gate to gate across.    

Having some fun with the software.

I wish I had a faster connection to the Internet. 130mb to complete download.
GOES-East ABI Mesoscale 1 - 0.64 um - Band 2 (nasa.gov)

One-minute updates, detailed structure of the eye. Can see the stadium effect and the hot towers.
Behold the Power, WOW  

EYE diameter at LF in Cuba @15 miles across. Interaction with land should turn this beast to the right ever so slightly. Implications on LF location.
Wondering if Ian can obtain CAT5 strength?
Oh, hell I'm all in for wanting to experience an eye passage. I'm going to have to get more supplies. Getting anxious bordering on nervous.  

Eye is present on KBYX radar. Sleeping is over-rated.

OVER/UNDER
20" of Total Precipitation?
________________
Roo- OVER

Several Thunderstorms moving across the peninsula general motion from the SE moving toward the NW. An Outer-Outer band, great, a nice PRE event. Stakes are extremely high as is my anxiety starting to rise. 
Many people are going to be shockingly surprised if they don't heed evacuations. A disaster waiting to happen.    

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The duration of TS force winds and hurricane force gusts could be pretty impressive. GFS bufkit for TPA has some pretty prolonged conditions. 

I'm well inland. Presently, latest model forecasts "if correct" re: Ian's track will be 75-100 miles to the W. Sustained TS winds will begin WED night and not abate till FRI morning. 
THAT'S A GOOD POUNDING.   

Finally going NUCLEAR.
BOMBS AWAY! LOL  

One thing I've noticed on the model graphics in particular 10m wind none of them get inland speeds correct. Like the wind stops at the coast?