ROOSTA

The further S this tracks the better as far as I'm concerned.
Milton appears to be RI to maybe challenge the lowest pressure record once again.
My adrenaline is pumping. Scary to think of the damage in Coastal communities as well as inland direct path.

Distinctly noticing a wobble to the right, lost the symmetry from its peak. EYE is contracting to a pinhole. Anyone have the latest vort data?  

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The Feb 1978 blizzard caused 99 deaths and destroyed or caused major damage to 1700 single-family houses.  Peak gust was 92 mph at CHH.  These numbers pale compared to Helene (and likely Milton as well) but are still significant, perhaps the highest since 3/1888.

Written with a tinge of sarcasm. I'm well aware of the destructive nature of storms in New England.

38 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You have a genny?

Unfortunately, no. I did at my first house here a Generac. Just haven't gotten around to getting one at the new place. No portable generators in stock anywhere in the state. Nice to see the highways jammed, people heeding the warnings and threat. 
ERC in progress. What a Monster   

Must be said.
This doesn't even come close to tracking a Nor'easter (Blizzards)
A nice gentle snowfall with 70mph. winds, accumulations 4"/hr. 
Sure, some power-outages and travel standstills BUT at least building stay intact.
A 20' surge and 2-3X the wind-force is a completely different BEAST.
I'm fully expecting the power outage here for 5+ days.      

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 If this is a strong 3 or 4 LF, surge will be catastrophic..I saw wave heights modeled 40-50ft. on top of that 10-15ft.  Better hope it jogs south and "only" grazes TPB, or a mega-collpase in short time, because that's a landscape changer 

Just envision a 10-mile-wide tornado akin to Andrew and surge of Camille.

18z GFS initialized only 50mb off actual pressure. Uncharted even HFSA had the lowest at 910mb through the run.

The 12z HFSB has an 880mb as the lowest pressure which will break Wilma.  

AWESTRUCK is one word. BREATHTAKING is another.
And to be in the path... Wow, I pray the people under evac get out. Record breaker for sure!
How low will he go?

  NHC site is crashing.

Caught between the adrenalin rush from tracking, watching it bomb-out and the catastrophic damage this could cause.
Family picked a bad week to come down to Disney. The wind-field radii is going to be expansive and strong. Cone is narrowing!
How low will he go?  

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The surge into that bay would be awful if that were to verify. 

Reverse surge in TB if verified as is now, that's going to change on the 18z runs.

1 hour ago, Brewbeer said:

Glad we dont live there

Alot at stake being a populated area to which many have never experienced. LF appears to be trending S with uncertainty catching many by surprise. Not liking the Hurr. models spitting out intensities to such a degree, hopefully shear and drier air gets rapped into which would be a double-edged sword- expanding the wind field.

I'm living close enough to be very concerned. I have a huge Southern Oak overhanging the lanai in the back of the house not exposed to such strong winds in a longtime.        

One of the experiences on "my bucket list" is to be standing in the eye of a Major Hurricane. ***NOT IN MY YARD***

Oh, baby here we go. Chances are increasing for just that with each run. I'm so far inland fear of surge or flooding should bypass (LAT 28.97, LON 81.63) None from the former and negligible on the latter.
Milton for obvious reasons I will prep for.  

Maybe a double hitter

That was an easy storm to track and forecast. The consistency of the GFS was dead-on from D10 to LF absolutely FANTASTIC. 
I only lost power from 8:00pm. to 3:30am. Started getting a bit concerned about intensity being spit out by the hurricane models being so right of the global. Could have wobbled at the 11th hour with my results being far worse.

My stations data records:
Lowest Pressure: 29.41InHg. - 21:03

Highest Wind Gust: SSW 63mph. - 01:26 

A little Rain only - 0.36In.
You can clearly see the discoloration in the Gulf from upwelling.  

NEXT

Just had a shower pass through, one of those outer-outer spiral bands. .23" in one-minute.
This storm seems different than other events. It's a unique feeling with dews and temp in the upper 70's. The air you can wear.
 
In the 12yrs being here the highest wind experienced was 93mph. in Michael. Power was out for 6 days!   

It's not the quantity but the quality of the tropical season.
Only taking one to memorialize and it ain't over.
Was it dust, shear or the latitude of the waves exiting the African coast?  
Thinking is the present threat the whole W. Coast of Florida from Tampa Bay to the Big Bend. Ground Zero.  

Stakes are obviously higher here. So, ya'll saying there's a chance?
Bring on tracking SNOW.
Can't wait for the Jerry's cryosphere post.

Seems like just about everyone is onboard for the present wave just E of the Antilles to gain tropical characteristics.
50/50 ATT from NHC.
If, a big IF...
Don't know what to think. Gut feeling- It doesn't develop. 
Drought continues. I'm all in for a late blooming prolific season. Record breaker maybe.   

And so, it begins. 
Long tracking tropical entities. Weekly formation in the MDR with several traversing come peak time.
I have a bad feeling for the E Coast. Seems all the parameters are aligned.

Going out on a limb here. Several, (4) Major Hurricanes tracking in the same trajectory with back-to-back LF's somewhere in the Gulf or along the E Coast. Florida can ill afford any hurricane because of insurance rates going through the roof. 

Greetings fellow New Englanders.
An exciting period ahead for severe enthusiasts.
I'm going to try to grace these pages with a post or two.
Startin with:
   Blitzortung.org - Live Lightning Map
I find this very informative combined with the GR product of choice.

Just arrived back home after a stop in GA. Probably a perfect trip. The Eclipse was out-of-this-world. It took about a minute and realized...start taking pictures, IDIOT! Ended up with only 5 or 6 and only (1) good close-up. Etched in a memory for a lifetime.

Not a cloud in the sky throughout the event, not even a wisp of cirrus.Snapped a few pics. Truly spectacular. To pick a location on Friday night and play out as it did, I'm shocked. Might have been the best place to observe the event outside of New England 

A Total Solar Eclipse is A MUST SEE! Not 99%, need to get into center of 100% totality.
Experienced the one in '17 so for seven years I've been waiting for this one.
Leaving tonight and driving to AR., MO., IL., IN. Should be enough time to chase clear skies in a 200-mile area starting at sunrise.
It doesn't look good presently. I put 0% confidence in a Cld Cvr prediction. Looking at 700MB humidity combined with surface Td... OUCH.  

Any snow is good snow. I'm pleased to see many cashing in, many more disappointed, bummer. 
Oh, what could (should) have been.  
How many times must I learn to start conservative, setting the amount and effects to high and then only to pull back? 
In the Winter of little still nice to track.

For a majority of posters in the Forum this is a hobby!

THANK THE GOOD LORD!!!
NEXT.....