ROOSTA

GO BIG or GO HOME.
It's these events that I tend to be glued to the computer. Often go sleep deprived and get an adrenaline rush.

THIS IS NOT NORMAL. Love it! 

I like the plunge into the sink-hole abyss. Classic!   

One has to wonder why the OP model(s) are waffling? Can't make a sound forecast or predict what the next run will produce. 
I believe it's normal given the timeframe. Nuisances, driving forces inclusive of all the variabilities upstream, downstream produce different outcomes.
Pointing out the difference between the run to run (some do it better than others) with scientific reasoning is one of the greatest attribute for having a forum.
To a member nobody will forecast the exact outcome.
It's nice to be tracking winter before severe season and the tropics take to the headlines.  

Declaration of PTYPE is premature IMO att. It's all dependent on how the atmospheric chaos shakes-out. Everything is still on the table.
Signal is strong, repeat SIGNAL IS STRONG. Based on ENSEMBLES and models coming to an agreement (somewhat) this event has a fantastic chance to produce.
One must consider a huge gradient with man-sized CF. Watch the winds and flooding coastal tides if the storm achieves its potential.

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

It snows east of the low on this run 

Please STOP IT! 

Alot of things have to come together for it just to snow. Eventual track, timing, UL dynamics, think CLIMO. 

Fighting against the oncoming Seasonal change. Time is also the enemy as the window closes. 

I remember April 1st vividly living in Everett MA. How rare that was... took a personal day off as to not commute to Waltham. Went to bed around 2am at the time only a couple of inches thinking that one more shaft-job. Awoke around 10 the sliding glass doors were covered over. Buried under an 8' drift- good ole basement garden apartment. Between 2 and 10am the rates had to be 6''/hr. 20 something inches fell in an 8-hour timeframe.

Just one this year for you guys! 

I hope you all get buried.
Must say it looks promising. ENS, ENS, ENS, watch how the models evolve to agreement or (DIS) agree.
Signal is strong, pattern conducive to something. Just another something to watch. SO MUCH FUN... 
An epic storm of Biblical proportions that's remembered for years to come, a new benchmark.

At least I absolutely NAILED the forecast IMBY.......ready, wait for it......ah, 0.000".
I know this is serious business, but y'all gots to have fun.

CONGRATS to those who cashed in!
Always next time till there isn't.
Famous last word "I don't think this season is over." 

Still have over .50-.75" of QPF to go for the next 24hrs.
HRRR is steadfast in snow amounts in the 4-6" range (still to come) especially in the Merrimack Valley.
Whether it happens or not this place is like a broken record. The whiners are going to whine to a decent amount. 

 

Surface reflection now forming off MD/DE coast. Watching SFC isotherms from RTMA sliding the real warm air toward the S and E. Radar returns are responding as expected, lightning in PA. A secondary fronto-band should move N as the L develops. 

Repeat after me... V-I-R-G-A
Not viagra which takes away virgin and not virgo that would be out of this world and kind of spacey.
The column has to saturate and then you'll have bingo.

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Lightning!!

 

SPC has a 10% chance of occurrence.
Maybe a MESO discussion forthcoming.  

MESO's hanging on to widespread 8-12"
Transfer of energy to just S of L.I. should complete by 15z. A smidge stronger than modelled.  

TOSS EVERYTHING.
Board-up the windows, watch FOX.

It's a nowcast event.
Gather the data, observe but mostly enjoy. 

SFC Temperatures are marginal. 

I want to talk to a Manager! Hell of a way to run a snowstorm  

Virga falling in W MA and CT, won't be long now till flakes be flyin. Valleys depicted as rain with the Hills mixed and white on radar returns.
I was 1.2F from my 90F day. Annually my stead has about 130 days, and dews over 70F from May to Sept.
I'm hoping everyone cashes in! Enjoy!  

Devils in the details. It's a juicy system. QPF settling between .75-1.00" 
I would still expect in a foot in the climo favored areas (where tainting doesn't take place) hills outside of 495.
A spread (SREF) of 2-12" with the mean around 6-10" in the forementioned areas.  

Going to be fun watching how this all shakes out. Big model runs forthcoming.

Close to the height of the storm:
Red line is marked as 6" snow depth.



Are the graphics improving? 
Enjoy writing thermal profiles- SFC,925,850,700, all kinds of variables. No need to pay for overpriced sites!

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?

S-W-E-E-T!
Locked and loaded...FIRE!
Liking the evolution to hopeful outcome for you's guys.

----------------
Meanwhile- mowing season has begun here. Time to break-out the 72" Ferris, all 10 acres.
Million dollar property.
Momma I'm coming home.

The vorticity albeit getting sheared still gets the good stuff cranking for a front-end dump. The block is stout and appears to have some staying power.
FINALLY A STORM! 

Makes no sense complaining about something one has no control over. As in this comment and those that lament over snowfall it's really futile. Should be plus/minus on amounts, best guess opinion on model output. Take it like a man!
Regardless of what transpires here on out the season is lost, an OFF year.  

Before the clocks Spring forward SNE will experience its largest snowfall of this year. Which won't be hard to achieve. 
This event appears to be sheared, not enough to consolidate or get excited about because it never gets its act together.
A 6-8" swath, maybe a jack of a foot from the slanted rulers in favored areas.
Getting close to the seasons swan song!

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

The season (this season) is (was) over before it began! Persistent 580 HGTS with the SE Ridge, mean storm track in the W. Never did shift E and now it's to late for anything meaningful. Any tracking will commence starting in Dec., 
I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech, press. Banning should be banned there is no requisite for posting in this public forum.  

People are desperate for SNOW.
In past years a storm of this caliber wouldn't garner more than a page or two and be lost into the files of yesteryear.
Always next year.
If I were younger, healthier I'd move to Montana (raise some dental floss) atop a mountain and watch it snow year-round.  

Count the "red flags," There are more caution flags to a NO GO then to a GO, GO, GO.
IMHO this is not the storm. Is there a snowstorm in the pipeline?  Who knows! 
Season was a ratter no matter what happens. Time to accept and move on...