osfan24

It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC.

Is a cold powder-warning level even with no stress really in the cards, though? Isn't that going to require suppression of the coastal, which is going to likely cause a lot of stress over whether we get enough precip far enough north to cash in? Everyone can root for what they want. Like another poster says, it won't change the final result. But we haven't had a real snowstorm in five years. Sure, a nice 6-10 would be great. But like PSU said, you only get the ingredients to come together for a big one every so often. We've had a -AO forever. It's time to cash in and hit a grand slam, not a double.

Yeah, I'm hoping this is the southern extent and we see the 100 mile bump north from now until game-time.

I don't know if I would trade it for the modeled 20 inches Kuchera gives me, but for 40+ that Northern VA gets, I would do that. It would be a historical storm. Most snow ever in one storm.

I know. I guess the good news is the storm is kinda getting its act together by midday Sunday, so it's kinda five days away? This will be the longest week ever. Well, until the Euro takes it all away tonight, lol.

Stick a fork in this one. Imagine having a -NAO and -AO for two months and getting a couple of sloppy inches. Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

Yeah, we are probably 24-48 hours away from officially setting our sights on the big President's Day storm.

Agreed. The GEFS is completely worthless. Basically locked into some kind of snowstorm, and now we aren't at all.

It looks like it is trying to go negative.

Yeah, I am sure if it snows hard and we get 6-10 or something, I'll be happy with that, even if the duration is quite short. It would be my best storm since 2016. Maybe I'm just spoiled from that hot stretch we were on, but man, it seems like forever since we got crushed and I'm like a drug addict needing a fix. I just got pretty optimistic between PSU saying this was the period he was targeting for a big one and then seeing the GFS with a few runs of a monster storm and the CMC also joining the party.

I did, or at least hoped. I'm chasing a big one. Pretty clear we are heading away from that. Precip slipping farther south, also looks like either less precip overall or the storm is just pulling away quicker.

Still time, but this is going the wrong way. The trend is your friend. And the the trend this season seems to be playing out with this one. I'll give it a few more days, but I'm already out on this pity Monday event. If this thing fails, I think I'll be taking a break.

I agree. Seems too flat. Want it to dig and go negative and close off.

The Para looks like 6-8 or so. Not bad, but was expecting better by comments on here. I guess it's all relative?

My only issue with that is how did things change THAT much over the past several years? 2013-2014 is the coldest, snowiest wall-to-wall winter I can remember in my lifetime. 2014-2015 finished cold and snowy. 2016 had a massive blizzard. March has been a colder, snowier month recently. It's obviously happening and having some kind of impact, but for the impact to be THAT massive in just several years?

I really don't understand how there isn't enough cold air. It's in the 20's today.

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

Well, let's just hope that was an off run. What a dumpster fire.

Toss.

Yeah, CMC is getting closer and it was great because we get snow on snow on snow in a week, BUT I still think this system has so much more potential than it showed. It only snows a max of like 12 hours over us. Get it to tilt negative and tuck a bit farther northwest and crawl away and then we are talking.

Seems fine for this range. Would like to see it linger a bit longer. Storm gets in and out pretty quick, which limits boom potential. Just need it to climb the coast a bit more.

Yes, Monday is likely some slop fest that will disappoint most. Thursday screams big potential.

If that doesn't look like something, I don't know what does.

Yeah, it needs to be farther southwest and it's an absolute beast.

If it just turned the corner a little more and hugged the coast a touch more, we get a nice deform and it's major storm, if not pushing historical.