BombsAway1288

NWS said that was a high-end, large wedge tornado and still more right behind it. Fortunately, it looks like it went through mainly wooded areas but there was a large debrisball with it. Looked amazing on Radarscope. It's a bad day down there.

Ginx and Tolland jack. At least 10" in BOS-ORH-HVN-PVD and everywhere in between lol Take this and run with it. Everyone!

No kidding, wow! Large-scale, major tornados confirmed on the ground. Never a bad thing for a snowstorm up here when you have a line of severe weather like that in the South. Hopefully everyone takes the warning seriously and is safe This thing is on steroids!

Nice. You should cash in nicely with this upcoming storm also. Good luck!

Exactly. No need to go any further with this. Anyone who's been here a while knows that he's just a troll. Good luck down there guys, expecting about 8" here. Maybe more, maybe a little less

It's just somebody with some serious mental issues from the NYC area. I think he's been banned multiple times only to come back with a new name. Looks like hes out the door again

I had a feeling it would be like that but just wanted to confirm with someone more knowledgeable. I'll take it from the king of the ORH banding Thanks Will

Somewhat worried about exhaust here. Short-range models seem to not have the EXACT placement of the heaviest snows just yet. Some are in SE Mass, some are in the 495 belt-ORH (shocking, I know lol). Anybody have a good/decent idea of where the subsidence screw zone will be? I guess it just depends where the best banding sets-up and if you're one of the lucky ones just outside of it. Or is this just moving too fast that we wouldn't really have to worry about that like we would if it was a slow mover with banding that pivots?

Yeah I see that now. Thanks I'm not sure what the 18z Euro did compared to the 12z but comparing this run with the 12z run from earlier, it really cut back on the QPF everywhere. I don't have paid access that has great details so I'm going off of Maue's site. I guess that's going to happen if it's less amped, therefore less precip but it's now drier than the GFS. Go figure lol. Still a solid storm though. I'll gladly take my 0.6-0.8 inches of frozen precip and run with it

Isn't most of the precip over by 12z Monday?

Very true. I can't speak for the rest of the country cause I don't pay attention besides NE and NYC area but you obviously know more than me. I'll take your word for it considering you are a NWS Met and those are NWS/NOAA models so if anyone on this board has good knowledge of them, it's you. I was just going on what I've noticed it (FV3) does verbatim and what I've read on here from others

Lol I guess I should have read the posts following that question. I keep the tabs open and these advertisement banners block the thing that says there are new posts. But yeah, you pretty much got your answer. It doesn't surprise me that LI had a 20" last March. They have the advantage of getting into the juicy QPF with intense rates and not being so urban. Sometimes it's good to be sticking out into the ocean

I'll take a stab at it. Probably because when March rolls around there is a lot more warmer temps starting to enter the Southern US. In order to get an 18" snowstorm any time of the year you need a really strong, amped up/phasing situation. Or a really slow/almost stalling system so you get the proper QPF. In March, if you have that, right on the coastal plain is going to get warmer temps than Dec, Jan, and Feb more likely than not. The majority of coastals in March come with marginal temps compared to the temps in met winter months and that just doesn't accumulate very good in the City especially with a stronger sun angle. Plus these coastals need to drop at minimum 2.0" of LE. Hard to get in March, on the coastal plain perfectly timed up with a strong arctic high. The one thing that 1888 had that you don't get in March a lot these days is a nice strong, perfectly placed arctic high. That storm had that and brought it down to the coast. Temps were frigid on East Coast. Record lows and low-max's that day and the day after. That's basically what it takes to get a 20"+ storm in NYC in March. Anywhere else in the Northeast, except for SE Mass/the Cape, has a much higher chance of achieving this in March, especially inland areas with higher elevation. Heck, it can happen in April in the NE, see April Fool's Day blizzard of 1997. Worcester had over 30" I think. Also, I think it was March 1958 or 1960 in Norfolk, Connecticut that they got something like 60" of snow for the month alone. It might have even been higher than that. Point is, you need a VERY cold airmass to interact with a VERY wet system and NYC just doesn't have that great of a location for it.

Lol, I could def. see that happening

The wishcasting forecasts get out of hand. People come on here for information. Not to live in a fantasy world with every storm.

If you're not including Traces being reported for the day then it was probably a long time ago. Have to get Don or Uncle to dig that up. It might have happened in Jan, Feb or Mar of 15'. Even though the real goods were up in Eastern Mass., it was still a very pattern/winter for the NYC area

Thanks. I'm not on Twitter. Why wouldn't he just post it here?

Don't be surprised if it stays the same. It was the first and for a while, the only model showing low qpf here last night and higher qpf for you guys It seems to be the only model that's handling this pattern with some sort of direction

Not bad considering all the rain. Did better than 80% or so of this sub-forum

That's right, it was bad in that season. One of the many models that busted badly inside 36hrs with the Jan 15' blizzard for the NYC area

Taunton jack?

Ugh These "upgrades" they give to the models don't do shit or just make the models worse it seems. Happened with the NAM, with the Euro and now with the GFS. The FV3 is so bad, implementation is being pushed back yet again Frustrating. Idk, maybe I'm just snake bitten with this year like Ray said. And I'm not even making forecasts!

It had video game type numbers for that one year but it was still pretty good before that too. Now it's just all of it mojo

I don't know what they did to it. It used to be awesome, whatever it had 48 hrs out was a lock you could take to the bank. Did they "upgrade" it or something?

There used to be a pinned thread with the breakdown of the release times for them years ago. It was either in the NYC or NE sub-forum. Can't remember which one but it's gone now anyway