ILSNOW

right about now Chicago storm will say 18z NAM has bumped south

7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

EPS is north of operational

can you post a map if you have it

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z GEM bumped north with he overrunning event.

Not surprising though, given the RGEM bumped north as well.

I know that there are many players on the board but this close to the storm why are the models struggling so much.

I fully expect the southern placement of snow to remain south.

Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

Beautiful, really helps bring to life the Joe/RC battle 

Is RC more optimistic then Joe?

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Regarding the north shift with the 12z RGEM... The overrunning event was well north, and the main storm system was also north, not surprisingly given the snowfall map.

Grasping for any model that works for N IL even checked ICON which was way south so it was an easy toss!!!

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

NAM and RGEM will be on the northern edge of guidance until show time, and then will disappoint 

Euro has been pretty steady over last few runs

and of course 12z RGEM comes north

yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN.

6z GEFS

Plumes for ORD up 6.76

NAM over running 

As Chicago WX shared yesterday you can thumb thru the 50 different Euro members

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/m23_acc-total-precipitation/20220205-1200z.htmll

7 minutes ago, mimillman said:

It is

Get to enjoy GFS till Euro comes out.

ice

12z GEFS

4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Can you post that map for the Cleveland/Akron area, please?

What a cutoff on the NW side in IL. Lake county 8-12 and 20 miles west in McHenry 2-4

nice part 1 for central IL into IN and MI

6z NAM is better for the immediate Chicago area. 6z GFS not backing down nor is the 6z EURO. Who blinks first?

GFS ensembles

GFS is kinda on its own at the moment

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It does, but the 18z EPS goes out to 144hrs.

so not looking good on 2nd wave ?

and ice