Rankin5150
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Everything posted by Rankin5150
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Hey there Jerry! It has been forever! I hope all is well with you and yours! Best, Jason
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Grit, Thank you so very much for all your analysis and PBP. You are a Redtag in my book...all day-EVERY DAY! How much did you end up with in your backyard? Hoping this ULL holds a good surprise for us (or at least the ones who got the shaft on round one). Thanks in advance!
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What do you think from what you are seeing, with the formation of the ULL? Does this thing have some horsepower? Or do you think we will just get on and off snow showers? It will be interesting to see where this sets up shop at...
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ULL's are so tough to forecast. I remember when NWS was calling for 1-2" and when it got going, they came back with the famous "there is a fly in the ointment" in their Forecast Disscusion and we ended up with thundersnow and 10-12" inches on the ground, when it was all said and done. This was from the early 2000's. Do you remember that storm @Queencitywx? I believe we were on the Wright Weather at the time.
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I cannot get over how heavy it is. We have a pink and blue echo over us, but it is ALL snow and SO HEAVY. It is piling up fast. Almost an inch. From timing it, I would say 1" per hr rates ATTM
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SAME HERE! I have the huge returns over me. ALL snow and ground covered.
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Rippin em here is South Belmont. Looks to be all snow now. Ground starting to cover up!
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In my dreams man! I wish! I fear the mixing. I think these heavy bands rolling in will cool it off enough for at least a couple of hours of wet snow before back and forth mixing. Thanks for Posting on here the past couple of days!
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I wonder roughly how many hours do you think this model recognizes that we have primarily snowfall?
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Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice.
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I sure hope this one has the best verification score! WOW. The unrealistic weenie in me loves this one, albeit, it seems to have been the most consistent model the entire process (so far)!
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Thanks! I have my fingers crossed for the Belmont and Charlotte area(s). Good luck!
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I think it will still be some significant totals. I would not be surprised to wring out 8-12" total, based on a blend of all the models right now. My excitement meter is rising fo sho!
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You will LOVE IT! I experienced 17" from the February, 2004 Storm and I talk about it to this day. It was so unreal to see it that deep. Brought the rabid weenie out in me. We even had thundersnow during the storm. AWESOME!
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I like where I am at in Belmont, NC
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I cannot wait to see the clown map for the NAM, just to compare to the FV-3
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I see you got my message! This is awesome! Hope it keeps trending!
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With this being so close to the start of the Winter Storm tomorrow, I feel we need to remember to not lose sight of looking at Radar Trends. They can tell a lot. For example, look at the expansiveness of the moisture. WOW! Someone is MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO GET CLOCKED! http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true i KNOW this is Intellicast Radar, but I am posting this for the ease of viewing, to help any newbies, etc.
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What if it is correct? I see all the models trending south, hence, this has to mean the cold air is stronger/dryer? I would think this has to bode well for us snow hounds?
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BINGO!!! This is what I was looking for. I could not put the words together on what I was thinking. Thanks.
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Awesome! Is there still the chance that we get hit with a major front end thump and it keeps the layers colder than progged, which would limit mixing? I wonder what the odds would be? I would say 7 times out of 10 (this may be conservative) the CAD in winter storms has been forecasted too warm by the models. Is that a fair statement?
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I am rooting for the FV3-GFS ALL. THE. WAY! That is too good to be true, albeit, it has been the MOST consistent model the ENTIRE time. Wow posted a comparison earlier which was eye opening. What to think? I cannot get over it. I know NWS and all the other Meteorologists are like "which way to go?"
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Grit, Correct me if I am wrong, but we are on the cusp of a DOOZY of a storm for our areas, if this verifies. I mean...this is a long duration with more snow than mixing. Correct? I also notice the other Models starting to move in the direction of the FV3-GFS. No? Thank you for putting this together. Looks awesome!
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I corresponded with Burger this morning and he told me to pass along to everyone that he would be tied up, but he wished he could. He will check back in ASAP.
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Thank you so much! I really appreciate that. This is what I was THINKING on the mean. This sounds awesome and hoping it is a trend that will stick. For it to show in this timeframe is great. I know from tracking storms from WWB and since the inception of American Weather, I have seen CAD perform colder than progged, I am feeling this in my gut for this system. Thanks again and good luck!
