Nibor
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Everything posted by Nibor
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GEFS are west of 18z
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0z GFS stalls basically on the benchmark hrs 87-90
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That trailing northern stream shortwave came in right in time on the GFS.
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Looks like not all the energy from the northern stream phased.
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And the bust was a rug pull within 24 hours. Horrendous.
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In my old stomping grounds the biggest bust was Jan 2015. Interestingly, that one was a Euro bust to the GFS.
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Absolutely, fuckin, no.
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Substantial changes at 500 mb on the EPS.
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Nothing to see here.
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The shift towards the GFS evolution at 500 mb is pretty substantial.
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Bro...
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At hr 51 more phasing on the euro...
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AI euro is west. Not as good as the GFS but it brings sizeable qpf especially to the Jersey Shore and eastern Long Island.
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Where those two pieces of energy at the bottom of the trough complete their phase determines everything. Earlier, we get hit. Later it’s out over the ocean.
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Imagine what he’ll become the day he gets a big one right? *Shudders*
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You’d probably get something similar to the gfs.
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A near miss/scraper has been the most likely outcome for some time now.
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At 500 mb CMC looks similar to the 6z Euro.
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Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC. If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.
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You can keep saying this all you want it doesn't change the fact that it's a much better skilled model than the GFS and CMC. Unless it corrects west it's a major red flag.
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Drunk Unkle agrees with it. The AI euro shifting west was huge though.
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It's out to sea. Maybe a hair east of 18z.
