weatherlogix

If we remove the November snowfall, what does 2018-2019 look like?

it's 2018-2019, use the model that shows the LEAST snow for each event. That is the one that is most likely correct

And I meant Jan 1987...I think it was January 25.....I was in 8th grade. NYC was forecasted to get a quick 2-4" and switch over to sleet/rain, like so many 1980's storms had done before it....but it kept snowing and ended as freezing drizzle. That storm was in at 9AM and out by 430PM or so. The next week there was a storm that mostly stayed to the south - NYC was forecasted to get a lot more than what actually occurred. One last storm later in February, also hitting the mid-Atlantic harder than this area....and I thought that winter was the greatest thing since sliced bread....had no idea a 1995-1996 was even possible.

I meant Jan/Feb 1987.....

In the NYC area PDI wasn't as impactful as it was in the Mid-Atlantic April 1982 slipped my mind but a storm like that in January wouldn't have been that huge a deal...what did Central Park record 9.6"?

Do you realize that from Feb 9 1978 through March 11 1994 there was like ONE real KU storm (Feb 1983)...I, personally, don't think the Jan/Feb 1986 storms qualify

Could it be that as a whole the weather/science community is using 100 years of data to make assumptions rather than a million years and maybe they aren't new combinations just unobserved combinations?....you can't beat god (higher being or whatever you believe in), no matter how educated you think you are.

If the AO and NAO are favorable (and -PNA), theoretically, there would be a north atlantic block or at least some confluence in SE Canada....so its conceivable that the trough wouldn't just lift up through the lakes like what has been happening. Assuming confluence, could be a Miller B...etc

I have been singing the 80's song for a while. I was in school (elementary/middle/high school) from 1979-1991, I had ONE snow day my entire life. February 14, 1983. ONE!

The JMA wasn't around in 1996, at least not in he mainstream

No it wasn't. The ECMWF was locked and loaded on that storm 8-9 days out

I agree and have said it numerous times...

i don't think you could have drawn up a more 1980's-esque winter if you tried....well, maybe the cold air would have stuck around a little longer...but still no snow

lock it up....

Back out the winters with black and white pictures

Earthlight and Isotherm are both very bright and talented forecasters - not taking anything away from them, but, here, in this instance, they are going to throw gutter balls this winter. The writing is on the wall. One week of cold, a snow event here and there and and annoyingly cold March (again) wont make this winter wintry. Damn November snow events

Long range weather forecasting is like trying to definitively guess the sex of a child you are going to have before you even conceive. You have a 50/50 shot and if you get it right, you are lucky. God controls the weather not analytics. I'd bet this upcoming Spring will be cold and raw.... One other thing to note that I have realized over the years (aside from Nov 1995), any winter with an early season snowstorm (pre 12/1) ends being the highlight of the winter (at least since 1989)

They have been wrong for weeks, let's hope that trend continues.

As compared to gung-ho outlooks, across the board, this winter has a legitimate chance to challenge 2001-2002 as the worst winter ever. What will put this winter over the top will be the constant 1-3 day uber-annoying cold spurts in between rain events....

People should stop reading and having their lives run by social media...morons.

My point was, its stale air and will likely be scoured away pretty easily - especially from the city south and east. On the South Shore of LI I am expecting little to nothing in the way of accumulating snow or ZR....

I'll give odds that it will be wrong

I am not sure how -5C or so air at 850 and temps near freezing at the surface is "cold air".

this is what it looked like to me for days

drop the 3 and those are the exact odds of that happening