BIG FROSTY

Raining and 45 degrees 2.29 in the bucket so far! Where is the cold when you need it?

Van says, Best be getting winter gear ready................................................ Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV Yesterday at 6:40 PM · Are you ready for winter and snow? For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20. Posted Nov. 25, 2019 FEEL FREE TO SHARE Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses. The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters. Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral. This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these. In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings. Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal. Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches. I will have the complete winter outlook next week.

rAiN 42.2

I've made it so far. lol............ Been a rough week, But slowly improving. They say 6-8 weeks out of work. I appreciate you asking about me!!! Take care my friend.

Great read, and I like you ideas!!! And I'll take a TORCON of (7) going into winter! lol................................. Thanks as I always look forward to reading your work!!!

1.88 in Frosty Land!

It's never to early to talk COLD/SNOW! I'm so ready for it, but not liking the winter forecasts I've seen so far, But they are just a guess. But I like reading them and when it looks promising it gives you hope! BTW Top out at 96.4 here in the N.Foothills today, Just simply ugly weather........................

I say you can save this, and post it ever year and you will be right 90-95% of the time!

Currently 93 with a Heat Index of 106 in frying frosty land! Boy am I looking forward to fall and WINTER............................. Did finally get a ThunderBuster last evening worth 0.90"

It's been a winner of a season bud!!! Don't ya just love living in the SE when ( you love winter weather)!

Exactly what I text a friend this morning!!!

WINTER CANCEL.

Yes, I definitely agree with that, just need to see some support from a model other than FV3. I think there is a real possibility for some Ice to show up in the CAD areas before 15th and it may get real interesting sometime after the 15th. Like you said if those highs verify?!!

That model is Atrocious!! It shows snow behind just about every cold front that comes through, how many times does that happen...............................

No doubt Mack is in the right spot! [emoji3061] .

Say it ain’t so! I read somewhere a couple days ago that JB was going to have a historic bust this winter?!! [emoji3061]

I'll put my coins on the NAMster! It looks perfect for this set up....................

Well, I guess it's time to take a break from this cold & snowy winter! #uglyasitgets

Larry Cosgrove tonight! The 64 million dollar question that commodities traders and weather enthusiasts are asking: will the bitter cold return after the expected warming trend. The short answer is an easy one: YES. But the more complicated issue is how that transformation happens, and who can expect to be afflicted by another Arctic intrusion. More to the point, where will important snowfall occur? The El Nino episode is weakening, particularly along the eastern sectors (the 3.4 and 4 divisions are more or less stable, adding to a Modoki appearance to this ENSO signature). That would lead one to believe that the current big "Arctic blast" is not a one-shot deal, particularly since national temperatures have been cooling since the middle of January. With warmer than normal profiles in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast, the stage should be set for more -EPO type ridging. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and predicted to cover more of the Phase 8 position in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin. So any connection with the polar westerlies might enhance amplification of the jet stream. Lastly we check the numerical models, which are finally emerging from some late-week chaos to exhibit a cold West vs. warm East alignment at the start of the 11 - 15 day period. That configuration slowly changes to a more central North America trough and finally, to extensive blocking signatures across the West Coast, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. That type of 500MB flow got us to where we are now, and both the CFS and ECMWF model output agree on this rather ominous outlook to last through the rest of February. This particular set-up is very favorable for widespread ice and snow well into the Deep South, as well as frozen precipitation maxima in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. The western 1/3 of the country, meanwhile trends warmer and drier. The pattern looks to continue through the first week of March, before a general collapse into a split flow occurs in the second week towards St. Patrick's Day. That will likely translate to a warmer third month, with plentiful rain and thunderstorms for .

Yes I did. .

That should bring a wet and mild pattern!!!

Lots of wrecks down here this morning also! still frizzle and 31

It got white in Elkin, Dobson today also! Little reminder what's to come...………………………….

Bingo on OBX!! May be a lot of eastern NC!