Larry Cosgrove tonight! The 64 million dollar question that commodities traders and weather enthusiasts are asking: will the bitter cold return after the expected warming trend. The short answer is an easy one: YES. But the more complicated issue is how that transformation happens, and who can expect to be afflicted by another Arctic intrusion. More to the point, where will important snowfall occur? The El Nino episode is weakening, particularly along the eastern sectors (the 3.4 and 4 divisions are more or less stable, adding to a Modoki appearance to this ENSO signature). That would lead one to believe that the current big "Arctic blast" is not a one-shot deal, particularly since national temperatures have been cooling since the middle of January. With warmer than normal profiles in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast, the stage should be set for more -EPO type ridging. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is strong and predicted to cover more of the Phase 8 position in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Basin. So any connection with the polar westerlies might enhance amplification of the jet stream. Lastly we check the numerical models, which are finally emerging from some late-week chaos to exhibit a cold West vs. warm East alignment at the start of the 11 - 15 day period. That configuration slowly changes to a more central North America trough and finally, to extensive blocking signatures across the West Coast, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. That type of 500MB flow got us to where we are now, and both the CFS and ECMWF model output agree on this rather ominous outlook to last through the rest of February. This particular set-up is very favorable for widespread ice and snow well into the Deep South, as well as frozen precipitation maxima in the Corn Belt and Mid-Atlantic states. The western 1/3 of the country, meanwhile trends warmer and drier. The pattern looks to continue through the first week of March, before a general collapse into a split flow occurs in the second week towards St. Patrick's Day. That will likely translate to a warmer third month, with plentiful rain and thunderstorms for .