BIG FROSTY

Wouldn't surprise me!!

Yes, He says MJO slow moving, tonight he said Feb 17 - March 7 Cold? IDK we'll see soon!!

Yes I've seen that, Phase 7 not bad for February If we can time a storm just right!!! I doubt it goes to phase 6, delayed but not denied..... Famous quote from JB lol

lol, That thread died quickly!!! Hang on it want be long....................... Just as soon as we can get the MJO in phase 8 the bottom drops out!

WxSouth seems pretty bullish on pattern and snow/ice chances!!! He just posted this on Facebook! The Thursday into Friday system will be a fast mover, but rain goes to a few hours of snow in eastern Kentucky, eastern TN and the mountains of VA, NC and most of West Virginia, maybe brief flakes east of the mountains Friday. Most accumulations in the mountains. Then that front stalls on the Gulf Coast and here comes a much more potent, interesting system for the Tennessee Valley, the Appalachians , part of NC, SC and VA as well with just barely cold enough air in place as moisture begins breaking out from west to east Saturday evening....significant snowstorm quite possible in or near the Apps region of TN, NC, VA, WV. Its too early to know the exact rain, snow and mixed precip regions just yet though First guess is at my paid site. Thanks to all the new members for your support. Beyond this, "spokes" of cold air drop into the bowl shaped trough and systems will still be coming in across the western ridge and falling into the mean trough position. Active and changeable are the key words, but our "thaw" is likely over, such as it was. Looks like December through February will end up being below normal temp wise, pretty much a certainty now for most of us in the Southeast and MidAtlantic. Some signals point to extreme cold returning very late month. It may get extremely wild to have such anomalous cold air available with the storm track at it's most active of the entire Winter. If you haven't seen any snow yet, it's not anywhere near over yet. .

Mack, your buddy says the Euro has done horrible this winter in his opinion. He’s going with the GFS on the cold. Said the Euro just has not seen the cold this winter!! I know you talking about the EPS though. He said weeklies have not done good so far either? IDK .

JB

Ole king mackerel he knows who it is.................... lol

A Cold Wet pattern, This is not an unrealistic expectation.... Says BJB

This might be a good set up for a major Ice Storm? JB thinks the cold will push east, IDK? Going to be interesting. Probably the most likely outcome will be a lot of snow/Ice west of the mountains at least to begin with. May take the middle or end of February for the cold makes it to the SE. I’m betting a lot of us sees an Ice Storm before the 20th. We don’t live at 5k feet, So I think models may miss seeing low level cold air in the LR!! JMO JB does say a war sets up from Texas to NE. So we may just stay warm like CR said. IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180127/454cbd63fa6f1e1a6b13c8e4153ebd6e.jpg[/img] .

JB, this morning, comment on the Euro! He thinks the Euro is cold, but not cold enough!! He said Right now, the MJO is loaded for bear in the warm phases and the result has been the thaw that we are experiencing........ So During the second week of February, the precipitation pattern looks like its into Phase 8.... He thinks we are starting the step down period here, and the coldest 20 days comes February 17 - March 7. The slow move of the MJO will extend cold well into March. There is still warmth in the first few days, but this is headed toward our analog. With bitter cold ready to come down from the arctic, once the MJO lines up, a similar evolution with the magnitude of cold should occur. The teleconnections have a deep negative EPO developing quickly, which suggests the Euro's Week 2 & 3 temperatures are suspect, as that would favor more cold farther to the east............................. Guess we'll see pretty soon! Hope everybody has a great day!

He didn’t say that, So Idk. .

JB tweet just now on coming COLD!! Step down to colder pattern starting..Negative EPO develops and cold will find a way to push, then take over for much of the nation, Core of cold in mid section first but deepens into east. Remember it steps down into the abyss then hits its stride ECMWF PRECIP patterns in tropical Pacific reveal same kind of MJO rotation as December, Source regions colder though, When EPO negative, tough to hold cold out, .

Lol, he’s traveling. He’ll be flapping one way or another next day or so. I’m ready for spring if it’s coming soon. [emoji959]🏿‍♀️ time!! But I suspect we’ll have another shot or two at a winter storm. I don’t want the super cold it begets dry and suppression, we just need the real cold close by to tap when that GOM opens up with a southern storm track late in the season!!! #juicystormsinFabFeb .

Dang, just like that winter is over!! [emoji853] I sure didn’t think we would be through with winter in January? What the heck has happened? I just read a FB post Robert posted, he’s still talking like February is gonna have cold a maybe many possibilities for winter weather. . The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and most importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February. Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February. Speaking of businesses, if you need more long range info and a heads up , and want to join my monthly paid blog, shoot me a PM with your city, state and email.

Okie dokie, guess we'll see you next fall then!! Have a great summer!!!

JB - On the MJO, Like before the previous cold, the midday updates are focusing on the MJO The "look" of the day 15 euro was a hint this was still in 7 and the MJO forecast shows that Notice even 15 days away, the forecasted amplitude is stronger than the set upfor the previous cold My interpretation of this is that because it is so cold, the cold overwhelmes the pattern but with a lot of fighting over the east until it gets into 8. The danger is that the fight between intense cold and the natural resistance in phase 7 ( it is not far from 8) produces repetitive storms with snow and ice in the areas where the cold can amplify in phase 8. A slow move through phase 8 and then other phases, or even into the null phase, would still likely mean major cold. Unlike last year, there is plenty of cold on the field The correction for low solar easterly qbo which is a stornger oorrelation mid and late winter would argue for continued amplitude correction, Notice it moves very quickly through 5 and 6 compared to 7.

I'd love to see another one 15" or 19", I'll be a happy snowman!!! I do believe some parts of NC will see a biggie before spring...................

Yes Sir I did get 19", 11" of it was in a four hour period. Beat all I ever seen that morning 4 inches in one hour!!! I doubt I'll ever see anything close to that again, but it sure would be nice to have a run at it.........................................

In weather, yes!! I think you like him pretty good!! You seem to know what he says all the time!!! Then criticize what he says..................... lol I think a lot of us will have at least a couple more chances at a Winter Storm before spring!

Seen this somebody posted!! MJO Heading for the Promised Land Its forecasted day 15 to where it was in mid December before the walls came tumbling down This could be real nasty

This pattern has my wife Shakin..........................................

Day 10 Euro for kicks and giggles!! .

Venting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and no

Orange CRUSH Job!!!