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Conway7305

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Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    Did they up their totals?
  2. Conway7305
    Seen a few flakes in Short Pump
  3. Conway7305
    Does Kuchea include sleet. I thought it removed it.
  4. Conway7305
    Looks like we are gonna be in a severe ice storm based off of the euro. 1.3 inches of ice is awful. Everything is still trending north. Even DC is getting significantly lower accumulations. I’ll start following the short range models now.
  5. Conway7305
    I believe that’s the combination of two storms but I might be wrong
  6. Conway7305
    damn
  7. Conway7305
    Ukie
  8. Conway7305
    Looks like 12z holding, even better accumulations on GFS
  9. Conway7305
    12z Nam is def colder run vs 6z. HRRR at max run looks ok as well out in Tennessee. So far good trends. 6z Euro tick colder as well.
  10. Conway7305
    Ukie Ensembles. Not bad
  11. Conway7305
    Euro ticked S 6z run. The NAM had changeover sooner, but it’s the NAM.
  12. Conway7305
    Any variations will dramatically lower or add accumulations. Were still ok
  13. Conway7305
    Still has us at 9-11” before changeover in RVA
  14. Conway7305
    hmmmmm. this is interesting with 18z AIFS euro ensembles. Paints a completely different picture. I have no clue as to the reliability on the AIFS or their ensembles, but they both look great.
  15. Conway7305
    2 inches of front end snow then Ice storm per 18z Euro . It’s been trending N every single run…:/ I honestly feel like when this is all said and done. Southern PA is gonna be mixing and we’re gonna end up being mostly rain. You can’t discount the trends here. Sorry to be a downer. Have no clue what GFS sees…..lol I will stay up for the 0Z to see if the new data will change things
  16. Conway7305
    I’m not ruling out a s shift again. Who knows. BTW. Here are the 12z Ukmet ensembles
  17. Conway7305
    anybody know if the GFS had the new reconnaissance data ingested today?
  18. Conway7305
    GFS Ensembles were south too
  19. Conway7305
    who the heck knows. 18z gfs. doesn’t phase the Baja low as much
  20. Conway7305
    I know we’re focused on this storm but check this out down line
  21. Conway7305
    this is interesting. The GFS ensembles do not appear to be north at all. In fact there are a lot of southern ensemble runs.lol
  22. Conway7305
    6z euro was a tick south from 0z so hopefully bleeding stopped. Will see for 12z. Every model usually follows the euro even if its lag time.
  23. Conway7305
  24. Conway7305
    GFS ok, mixes for a bit then goes back to snow
  25. Conway7305
    Models also don’t pick up well on CAD typically past 72 hours so hopefully we will get better idea as time get closer to storm.
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