tramadoc

I don’t know if any of you follow WxSouth on Facebook, but Robert is a good synoptic forecaster. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

If nothing else, he was positive.

Whatever happened to Brick? I enjoyed reading his dissertations on the weather because they were basically rewordings of the opining of others.

All I read is how it's coming west... They want it to come west... They get snow more often than we do. I understand the wanting it to snow, but what they want is ridiculous. They want snow at the expense of everyone else from I-95 east to the coast. It's like they're rooting for us to get nothing but rain.

Ugh... You're correct on all of that.

Be prepared for a non-event.

AKQ AFD... Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AKQ now says little to no snow accumulations

From NCSNOW in the SE Forum: Just read a good mets opinion. Thinks jackpot is 6 to 12 between Raleigh and I 95. Mixing I 95 east. And we get screwed again.

Tolleris is like a recalcitrant child 99% of the time.

Hell is going to freeze over. The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs and NE NC and SE VA could get snow.

Snowing southern OBX (Buxton and Avon).

I'm tired of getting nothing but rain while 50/100 miles away gets smothered in snow.

Which I'm okay with since west of I95 usually wins out while we get screwed.

We're getting the bay effect snows down here at KECG. Weird to see. Not enough down here to coat or dust, but enough to say we saw snow two straight days. 28 degrees at 1430 hrs.

Down to 33.0

Temperature is steadily falling. We're now down to 33.4 with moderate snow. Sticking to elevated surfaces and grassy areas.

Starting to stick. My daughter having fun.

Temp has dropped 6 degrees since 730. It's currently 34.5 here at the house about 5 miles SW of Elizabeth City.

Dime sized flakes falling here about 5 miles SW of Elizabeth City.

AKQ not impressed with tomorrow's system. A dampening shortwave trough will push across the Ohio Valley this evening, before sliding across the Carolinas on Wednesday. This feature will interact with the aforementioned cold front, spinning up a weak low/coastal front. 12z/26 NAM/CMC/ECMWF each are a bit wetter with the overrunning moisture, with the GFS lagging behind showing little or nothing. However, much of the deep moisture and lift remains just to our SE. Our official QPF has increased slightly over our SE sections, with precipitation expected in the mid to late morning timeframe across far NE NC and coastal SE VA, and pops have been increased to high end chc/likely during this midday time period. Thermal profiles aloft support light snow at the outset across the entire area. However, warmer air just aloft (H8-85) could allow for some light sleet/graupel mixing in before any mixed precipitation turns over to rain by late morning. PoWT grids do indicate a small chance of some freezing rain along (and mainly S) of the Albemarle sound, and accordingly some FZRA mention was considered. However, given very light QPF and the timing, we have stuck with frozen dominant P-type, and hence no winter wx headlines at this time. Should also note that precipitation could turn back to snow briefly by early afternoon in strong CAA before ending, again with little or no accumulation given relatively warm ground and light QPF. Farther N, highs should only rise into the low/mid 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Have also allowed for a period of flurries over northern tier, mainly north of a FVX-RIC-WAL line. Even in the dry airmass, northern stream shortwave, ongoing strong CAA and strong upper jetmax crossing could be enough to wring out a few light snow showers. HRRR has begun to catch on to this potential, for what it`s worth...so later shifts will be keeping an eye out for this potential early tomorrow morning. Measuring unlikely, so will hold pops out for now.

I agree that since we are "in between" the SE and MA threads what works for us usually leaves them either getting a dusting or nothing at all. I get why they always love the NW trend and the lows closer to the coast. It throws more moisture back west and allows the western half of the state to pile up snow. The only problem is that when that happens, we get a cold rain. Personally, I want to see us get the snow and everyone else get shafted. That doesn't usually happen.

Gauging the somber attitudes in the SE forum, it looks like we are not going to get anything of consequence during this period of below normal temperatures. [emoji29]

I said it before... The guys in SE are central to western NC centric. What they want to happen is always worse for us.

I hope so. All the guys in the SE thread are hoping for the low to ride the coast closer in so the western Piedmont and mountains get the bulk of it while we get nothing but rain.