jjwxman

FWIW… the Extended run of the 00z HRRR takes Ian even further into the Atlantic through hr48.




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That’s a heck of a shift East on the 18z EPS… Wow!
12z vs 18z EPS





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The 00z CMC also shows the stall over Florida and then north into the SE US.




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The resemblance on the 00z NAM vs the 00z RGEM is insane. Kuchera maps






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4:25 am. 30/6 in Randleman, NC.

Man this has 12/4/2002 vibes. Ugh.


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4:00 am. 30/8 in Randleman, NC

Chapstick dry. Evaporative cooling should begin soon. Hopefully the dynamical cooling can keep the 850 just sub freezing long enough to get an inch or two.


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The 00z Euro holds course.




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Local Mets in the Piedmont Triad are calling for around .25inch of ice. That’s not great, but not severe. some of these models are spitting out crazy numbers. What is y’all’s honest opinion? If you live in the triad should you be prepared to lose power?

NWS Raleigh is calling for 0.20”-0.40” with isolated areas approaching 0.50” in their latest WSW statement for the Triad. I’m prepared to be without power for several days.




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Curse you for bringing that up. Do you have any idea how many trees I had to cut up in my neighborhood??  Not to mention no power for 3 days with a 5 year old and newborn.  Not fun!
 
Edit....but I kinda agree.  

I was 17 when that storm hit. I remember the sky lighting up everywhere bc all the transformers blowing and the sound of falling trees is something I’ll never forget. They had to replace about every single power pole on our 5 mile street. We were without power for 12 days I believe. Now a father of young children myself I’m not looking forward to this storm. We’re pretty much in the bullseye for freezing rain in Northern Randolph County.


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FWIW: 00z FV3 Hi Res as the storm moves in. I haven’t looked at this model all that much. Is it supposed to take the place of the Hi Res NAM eventually?






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GFS crushes the mountains and foothills again next Saturday. Look at these cumulative totals.. insane

Taken verbatim the I-85 corridor would be in for potentially another ice storm depending on what this weekend’s system does.


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Geez… the Triad went from 1-2ft of snow to a crippling ice storm in 24 hours via the GFS. What’s next? Tornado outbreak by the 00z run Thursday? What can you say, it’s Winter in the SE.


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FWIW The 00z GEFS cut the mean snowfall from the 18z run in half. But it is colder at the surface. It’s definitely not seeing the up the coast solution like the Op.


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Wow, the 00z GFS was a run for the ages. Well Over a foot of snow in the from CLT to the Triad and the Triangle. Add to that very strong winds, with surface temps in the 20’s for a big portion of NC. That’s a legit blizzard from the GFS. Also a nasty ice storm along the Hwy 1 corridor. Just incredible. If the Euro spits out something even half that we’ll see everyone jump on board tomorrow.


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Sizable shift south on the HRRR, NAM’s. Combination of confluence over the Midwest and less amped? Interesting.


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Yeah, I am just not feeling good about this one. Once the north trend commences, it rarely trends back south. However, I could be wrong.

Agreed. RAH hasn’t mentioned anything frozen in their HWO for the Triad area. I’m sure they will with Sunday morning’s update. I’ve come to respect their seemingly conservative approach. It has served them well more times than not.


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The system is trending stronger generally. The timing and placement of the front will be kry to where gets snow. East TN and the TN/NC border up to central and eastern VA would be my guess. Places like northern Mississippi and Alabama could get some snow too. The cold air will have trouble reaching areas east of the Blue Ridge. 

Yeah the whole cold air chasing moisture is a losers bet. But this one is sneaky. If there is a wild card in all of this it will be the track and how fast the LP deepens or strengthens as it moves off the coast. The associated dynamics may aid in rapidly cooling the entire column before all the moisture moves out. As always in NC timing is everything.


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NAM’d….




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Me every time I walk past my weather station and continue see 43 degrees.  Lol. 
 

 

42/28  fifteen miles south of GSO.  

Just now, tarheelwx said:

I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts.  I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning.

TW

Well it’s RAH after all, they have always played it conservative, and It has a served them well more times than not.   

1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking?

Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist.

TW

Sitting here in Northern Randolph wondering the same. I will say the last ice event this past weekend we just got a light glaze. No two events are alike, however Climatology says there’s generally a tight cutoff just south and east of the I-85 corridor on events like these.  I suspect that Davidson and Randolph will be placed under a warning if data holds/keeps trending over night. 

RAH is sounding the alarm.  WSW now in place for their farthest NW counties including the Triad and Roxboro.  

 

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of at
  least one quarter of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Person, Forsyth and Guilford Counties.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

 

 

That boundary on the NAM...  

 

Wow... The 00z CMC really increases the icing threat on Saturday compared to the 12z run.