bdgwx

SFMR 119 kts unflagged southeast quadrant again.

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

136 kt FL, 121 kt unflagged SFMR in the Southeast quad. Holy smokes.

 

I was just getting ready to post that. I hope they make a pass through the western side.

There are multiple 200+ mph bins on the right side now too.

Based on the intersection of the 12Z GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensemble 1σ rings the best estimate of track is for an approach toward Tampa and then a slight left turn paralleling the coast north of Tampa and then a slight right turn into eastern Georgia. I think this might be a tick east of the official NHC track at 2pm and tick west of the 18Z TVCN track.

What is also interesting is that the tropical cyclone ensemble TVCN/A beat the NHC's official OFCL track at nearly all lead times last year (HR96 being the only exception and only by a couple of 1/10ths of a nm).

The 6Z cycle of the big 3 ensembles is in. As expected the EPS took a big leap toward the GEFS and so now the uncertainty rings line up pretty well. Unexpectedly MOGREPS shifted slightly east showing a landfall near Tampa. The mean of the 3 is still well offshore, but the intersection points of the rings gets Ian very close to the coast at HR96 and parallels it for either a very oblique landfall angle or an eventual landfall in the big bend area. I wonder if MOGREPS will cave to the GEFS and EPS on the 12Z cycle?

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is where I think Tomer's super ensemble is especially helpful, and at five days 00z you still have significant spread. 

If it's not obvious yet I'm big fan of ensembles. There is a proven a record of superior forecast skill when using ensembles. I do like Tomer's super ensemble as well. My only complaint is that I *think* it only includes the deterministic UKMET run and not the actual ensemble suite. The only place I've found to get the UKMET ensemble is the RAMMB site.

This is now a bit a old. I'm posting the 0Z big 3 ensemble so that it can be compared with the 6Z cycle that should be available in about 30 minutes. The 0Z cycle was showing the head fake toward the coast but ultimately held firm with the landfall near the big bend area of FL. I suspect the 6Z will be a tick west of the 0Z due to the big shift from the ECMWF suite.

11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

OTWH, Euro ensemble eyeball mean is towards TPA, OTOH it has initialized as a weak system and the ones that head further N towards the shear and dry air are the stronger members

That is really old. The 9/26 6Z is way west. Like...way...WAY...big cave to the GFS and even further kind of west.

0Z DSHIP is aggressive with intensification in the near term. 

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  IAN         AL092022  09/26/22  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    50    57    66    77    88   104   117   116   112    99    87    75    65    54    45    36    30
V (KT) LAND       50    57    66    77    88    99   112   111   107    94    82    51    34    29    27    27    28
V (KT) LGEM       50    55    61    70    81    89   115   111    97    82    67    43    32    28    27    27    28
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)         3     0     2     4     3     7    17    24    37    36    41    36    44    35    39    42    44
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     5     0    -1    -1     0     2     2     3     3     3     4     0    -3    -4    -3     5
SHEAR DIR         40    96   293   310   170   173   195   211   216   248   240   252   242   244   235   237   239
SST (C)         30.0  30.2  30.1  30.3  30.3  30.2  30.0  29.5  29.4  29.5  28.9  28.5  28.0  28.2  28.3  27.6  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   170   172   172   172   171   171   169   159   156   158   149   143   136   138   140   133   126
ADJ. POT. INT.   167   170   167   168   166   160   152   138   133   134   126   120   113   113   116   112   106
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.5   0.8   1.0   1.2   0.9   0.8   0.7   0.8   1.3   1.7   1.9   1.7   1.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     7     8     7     6     4     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1     0     0
700-500 MB RH     73    72    73    73    72    66    57    48    39    34    34    41    45    46    43    40    47
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    17    20    23    26    29    35    34    36    33    31    28    27    23    20    16    16
850 MB ENV VOR    63    50    43    66    80    64    92   114   120   133   113    82    82    65    50    51    54
200 MB DIV       107   106    53    66   112    69    91    97    78    61    79    72    44    31    28    48    52
700-850 TADV       6     9     7     7     5     7     5     4     3     4    -2     9     9    15    13     8    29
LAND (KM)        311   347   369   267   147     3   208   241   188   156    58   -88  -181  -202  -286  -468  -603
LAT (DEG N)     16.9  17.8  18.7  19.7  20.6  22.5  24.4  26.1  27.2  28.2  29.4  30.7  32.3 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)     80.9  81.7  82.5  83.1  83.6  84.2  84.6  84.6  84.6  84.4  84.0  83.5  83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    11    12    12    11    10    10     9     7     5     6     7     7     7     6     8    13    15
HEAT CONTENT      50    58    66    83   105    94    86    40    32    32    44     3     2     3     3     2     1

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    18.3%   68.7%   56.0%   38.4%   30.7%   74.3%   66.8%   32.1%
    Logistic:    19.1%   72.0%   58.6%   54.2%   36.0%   47.8%   31.3%    0.4%
    Bayesian:     4.3%   51.3%   30.4%   15.2%   11.2%   32.5%   22.6%    0.2%
   Consensus:    13.9%   64.0%   48.3%   35.9%   26.0%   51.5%   40.3%   10.9%
       DTOPS:    12.0%   98.0%   94.0%   91.0%   34.0%   89.0%   97.0%   64.0%

That's a pretty significant shift east on the OFCL track. One other notable change is that while the 8pm track had an increasing right component to it's track the 11pm track may even have an ever so slight left jog keeping it more parallel to the coast for longer. 

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 18Z UKMET at 60 is 40 miles ESE of the 12Z at 66.

Yeah. It's looking like the odds of an oblique landfall angle or coast hugger have increased per model guidance today. Just because the ensembles are focusing on a more northward landfall does not necessarily mean the populated areas along the west coast of FL will be spared.

The 18Z cycle of the big 3 ensembles is in. The intersection of the uncertainty rings still suggests the big bend area of Florida is the best estimate of landfall. It is very difficult to make out due to the large nature of the uncertainty rings but the intersection point for HR96 while close to the coast is further away than what the 18Z operational ECMWF or EPS mean are suggesting due to the influence of the GFS and UKMET suites pulling it further west. However, the uncertainty rings are fairly wide at HR96 and even the combined uncertainty of the 3 at the intersection point is still going to be fairly large as well and likely inclusive of a landfall near Tampa. The point...areas from Fort Meyers and especially Tampa on northward should still keep a close eye on possible south and east adjustments to the track resulting in larger impacts for those areas.

A blend of the 12Z cycle GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET ensembles are showing a landfall south of Tallahasse, FL between hour 120 and 144. It looks like this is a tick west of the 2pm EDT NHC official track.

The intersection of the HR144 1σ rings from GEFS, EPS, and MOGREPS has landfall near Cedar Key, FL north of Tampa. This blend of the global ensembles is consistent with the 8pm OFCL track. One interesting aspect here is that MOGREPS takes a western track early and then takes a sharper turn to the NE than the GEFS and EPS. It appears there is a slight tick east relative to the 12Z cycle with the passage through the Yucatan Channel and clipping Cuba on this cycle.

I should add that the intersection of the 3 HR72 1σ rings (GEFS, EPS, MOGREPS) places Ian on a path through the uprights of the Yucatan Channel albeit on the eastern side.

The big 3 are in. It is very difficult to make out because of the large spread but it looks like the intersection of the 3 HR120 1σ rings keeps Ian well off the coast at around maybe 25.2N, 86W. This appears to be well left of the 2p EDT OFCL track though still in the cone. 

Somewhat interesting is the fact that the trough in play here is carrying with it some of the energy from Typhoon Merbock whose remnants caused a lot of problems in Alaska just a few days ago. Merbock has obviously disintegrated with its remnants scattered all over the place now, but it played an important role in the evolution of the trough and to a lesser extent and by proxy the phasing with Fiona today. Butterfly-Effect.

As of 9/23 15Z per the NHC wind field the IKE is 152 TJ.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  936 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 300SE 150SW 160NW.

As of 9/23 12Z per RAMMB wind field the IKE is 72 TJ.

As of 9/23 9Z per official NHC wind field the IKE is 149 TJ.

Several of the UKMET ensemble members push AL98 into the Yucatan and enter into the western GOM.

12Z UKMET crosses western Cuba and enters the eastern GOM heading north and then takes the turn NE heading toward the FL coast well north of Tampa at hour 168 as a "meh" tropical storm.

Just for fun I plugged in that HWRF wind field into the IKE calculator and got 180 TJ and that's with some conservative assumptions I made due to the extreme inhomogeneity in the field. That is on par with Isabele and tops Sandy. I doubt it actually gets that high, but like I said earlier I would not be surprised if it goes above 100 TJ.

As of 15Z...

Based on RAMMB wind field product IKE is now 82 TJ.

Based on NHC official wind field IKE is now 74 TJ.

0Z UKMET crosses the far western tip of Cuba and enters the eastern GOM. By hour 168 it is moving due north.