REPS (RGEM ensemble)
I added the REPS to this one because I think this was a good example of why a short-range ensemble is useful. At 00z on 1/11, less than 48 hours before snow started falling, the Euro, Ukie, and GFS had DC getting less than 0.3" of precipitation. The wettest global was the GGEM, which showed DC in the 0.4" - 0.6" contour. The RGEM and HRDPS were both out of range, and the NAMs effectively were. This is what the 3k NAM was showing at the time, with precip having moved offshore at the end of the run.
But the RGEM ensemble mean put DC in the 0.6" - 0.8" contour, which was even wetter than the GGEM. In retrospect, it was a good sign that this system still had a lot of upside potential. At the time it was an outlier, but it arguably ended up busting low. The below images use the weather.us color scale.