40/70 Benchmark

Totally agree. Yea, this is the problem that I had with that w QBO/La Nina and -NAO connection we spoke about yesterday...most of those seasons in that Weenie-Europe guy's composite were low solar.

Good luck with that, although I will say that I did not include it in my JJA H5 match composite. However, I think there are a multitude of other similarities. I have come to learn that its beneficial to be eclectic in your methodology.

I agree with that...probably similarly to the NAO in that while the DM mean will be decidedly positibve (not extremely so), there will be a month that counters the mean.

The 1951-2010 composite site is back up. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/index.html However, they still haven't update the temp/precip plots to include 9/2024. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/ Here is the old MEI data: https://www.webberweather.com/multivariate-enso-index.html

2022 is certainly a great analog. That season with a hair less amplitude out west and a bit of luck would have been okay at my place. I will take the under on that degree of amplitude out west again. I understand how everything looks, but the odds of getting that deep of a trough out west in the seasonal mean are pretty remote IMHO. Its like having everything line up for a big east coast storm and expecting a repeat of Feb 7, 1978 because of that...or having everything look great on a seasonal level and expecting 1995-1996 up and down the east coast.

I just meant "party" as in +PNA...probably should have worded that better. I just mean latitude will be probably be needed more in February than January. Obviously this is all just specualtion based on some preliminary stuff.

Another thing I have come to learn is that each time you think you have anything all figured out, your ass gets handed to you...and at somepoint the persistence forecasting crew will get a hot serving of tushy platter.

Yea, the devil is in the details....obviously its not going to be a 2015 orgie....but is it more like last year or 2020-2021, 2021-2022....or even 2022-2023 with a bit better luck.

I agree.

I wouldn't shut it down until Halloween as far as SNE is concerned.

Well, first of all, I never make hurricane season predictions...only prominent individual storms (I know that part wasn't directed at me personally). Secondly, I didn't say Feb was toast...I said the PNA party ends. You get very defensive whenever you perceive anything as unfavorable for winter activities. It may be toast for portions of the east coast for sure...but its September, dude.

I am seeing some signs of a pretty significant +PNA/+NAO that may drive things in January, before the Aleutian ridge retrogrades and puts an end to the party for February.

I think 80s are done...for me, anyway.

Rejoice...I'm so sick and tired of the 80s.

I think this is what earns people credibility on the internet today because the majority of folks on the web don't have it....distinsguishing oneself from the amorphous cluster of cyber-rehea is important and said accountability coupled with a relative modoicum of accuracy paves the pathway to earning the trust of the masses.

I wouldn't say that yet.

Yea, by central I mean hybrid, or mixed.....not modoki. Moral of the story is a moderate intensity hybrid event will come down to the exatra tropical Pacific and polar domain.

My stance on peak has always been in the in the upper portion of weak in terms of ONI and moderate in terms of RONI...which means the modoki structure will not be as important as it has the past couple of years given there is more variance with weaker events. But at the end of the day it will all go back to the extra tropicla Pacific.

I will admit that you could make a case for east-based Nina until earlier this month, but its never looked likely to persist and is already rapidly changing.

Amen...obviously don't expect @bluewaveto be icefishing in the Hudson, but cold relative to today's standards.

And its easy to do given the abundance of data and dearth of sample size....case en point, making +QBO/La Nina look like an indicator for -NAO when you are neglecting solar cycle.

I think where we are now is a contemporary version of the mid 1970's in terms of multi decadal cycle juxtaposition....emerging from the severely cold PDO/potent el Nino of the early 70s and nearing the flip to cold phase AMO and warm phase PDO. This dovetails into the favorable stretch I expect near the turn of the decade, which would be a milder version of the 76-78 stretch near solar min.

Many of his westerly QBO years occurred near solar min, so his research isn't exhaustive enough. I will bet my left nut that this DM period does not average -NAO, however, nor do I think its wall-to-wall roofed positive as the Euro implies. I think we see one month that is appreciably negative. That said, we need the Pacific to cooperate or it won't matter for most of us.

He is claiming this is going to be an east-base event, which it is not. Its going to be central-based. He is referencing the same research that I did back in 2022.