ORH_wxman

Actually has a rare true flash freeze event during a rain to snowstorm on that solution. Doubt it verifies but every once in a while it happens.

Not optimistic. There’s an area of forcing knifing SE that is supposed to blossom Some snow for eastern areas later on this evening…that’s what could give a quick burst of actual half-decent rates. But it could also stay too far northeast. The dying WAA tries to rejuvenate some weaker echoes this afternoon but I am not counting on anything from that. For far eastern MA, they might try and sneak a piece of the IVT tomorrow….but that is low probability.

We had about 12” in the 2/4/95 storm and then I think the next biggest storm all winter was maybe 2” or 3”. It was close to being historically awful if it weren’t for that one Storm.

Euro is pretty nice for far SW CT for Saturday. Rest of SNE is light snow that is probably getting shredded…prob 1-2” type deal.

You need about 1.5-2” and you’ll be good. Any coatings will melt/sublimate.

He's been in probably the worst spot in the entire region since Feb 2022. So I get it....at least the rest of us had at least a few decent events, but his area down toward Tblizz has been really bad. ORH might have been the worst spot relative to climo from 1988-1992.

Dude, I went 4 years without a double digit event in ORH.....think about that for a second and take into account the climo and location.

It's pretty good for CT, esp SW half....not good for E MA.

Now you are really living the ‘80s ….last winter was a small preview since it wasn’t a torch. But so far this year we’ve got well below normal temps and you get to watch the mid-Atlantic snow and then we rain on the next system and then rinse/repeat. That’s almost exactly how it went. Wasn’t that bad of a decade roughly Philly-southward.

I actually cant believe how cold the post-Xmas period is going to verify versus what models showed several days to a week ago....somehow, we still can't snow very much.

The stuff in upstate NY diving SE is what most of us in SNE want to watch for later. The BGM to SW CT stuff is just going to keep fizzling...the forcing for later comes from the upstate NY batch....whether that's enough for a couple inches or not is the question

3k NAM being pretty healthy too gives some hope though that the 12k isn’t on crack. Both NAMs show the initial WAA dying out midday east of ORH, but it regenerates a very healthy precip shield as the forcing from the northwest (that gives NNE most of their snow outside the norlun) punches in. So if they are right, we’d see a lot of blossoming precip on radar this afternoon. Esp after about 2-3pm.

Not sold yet though. Hrrr still hideous. Rap still hideous.

12z NAM came in decently healthier for this afternoon.

Might be C-1” inside of 128. Even here could struggle for an inch but that depends on if we get some better enhancement in the evening for about 2-3 hours. Won’t surprise me though if we get skunked given the last few years.