Jump to content
  • entries
    47
  • comment
    1
  • views
    2,947

About this blog

In this future, this blog will be used for forecasting snowstorms and their future impacts.  I will be using this blog for forecasting snowfall amounts and impacts from future nor'easter/blizzards and other types of snowstorms.  All other material will go in the other Once a Legend, Always a Legend blog.  Thank you!  Snowfall forecast for SNE will come in the early days of November.

Entries in this blog

Ingredients for a snow event this weekend - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a col
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Happy New Year's Eve!

Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

First Signs of Winter showing up!

Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us.  New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter.  As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world.  As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly.  As win
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Fascinating Weather heading for New England this week into the first week or longer of December - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles.  06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run.  The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions.  We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm.  The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers.  SNE will s
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

ENSO Pattern looking more confident into Spring 2020

Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  Mor
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Emerging single for a moderate sized Snow event - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE.  Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.** A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US.  Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source.  I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Early MET WINTER 2019-2020 looks to bring a storm of sloppiness and rain to Cape and Islands - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday.  I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm.  There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Denver, Colorado metro could see a big snowstorm

**Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high! Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region.  Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT.  Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral.  This will le
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands.  AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops.  If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heav
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Cold Season weather today!

Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon.  Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay.  Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed.  Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Chaos will lead to a SuperStorm! - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

A Pattern We have seen before - SNE Weather Pattern Update!

The next seven to nine days the pattern supports a rathe benign and quiet week, especially from this weekend through next Friday, with temps moderating through the lower 40s for highs support a rather just below average temperatures for early winter and late December period.  Averages are rather low this time of the year and into the January into March period for the next year.  The 2020 New Year are supportive of a rather snowy period.  Latest models in the medium to long range support a reload
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

12z Model Update - SNE WEATHER UPDATE (Cape Cod could see a big surprise Tuesday?)

The latest cycle of the 12z model set has led to a high and very large uncertainty for forecasting SE MA and RI weather for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.  The cycle was spilt down the middle, one side shows a potential major impact of snow and wind for the area then, but the other set as the secondary low taking off to far east and southeast and has a very little impact on the area for snow.  Right now, there is a less than 40% forecast confidence in any direction.  This is very poor for
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**Storm Alert** First Legit Eastern SNE snow threat FEB 10th to 12th, - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week.  Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US.  We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength.  We don't know the presence of enough
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**Alert! Alert! Alert!** - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

**Alert Level - Awareness!** Potential Nor'easter impending day 4 - given both uncertainty and time frame, this level is only for awareness.  Given unknown factors at play and will not know the extent of the systems at hand for the next 40 hours, we will not gain confidence until a better consensus develops and we get closer to the event period.  January 5th is the date for the nor'easter impact period.  We will know the most by 00z Saturday, Friday evening, 7 pm cycle. That is all for
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0
×
×
  • Create New...