Jump to content
  • entries
    217
  • comments
    28
  • views
    113,370

About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Our Coastal Storm update 00z NAM and 21z SREFs

Yes more snow is on the way, and the latest models at 00z update are coming in with better results for our small but powerful coastal storm taking shape tomorrow off the Va Beach coastline and heading NEward, depends upon how far northwest this system comes in the short range will determine how much snow we get in the end
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**Winter Storm Alert** Southeastern New England Snowstorm Map

Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon.  It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

ENSO conditions update for the 2019-2020 Winter

Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

**Winter Storm Alert** final map

This is my final map for this snowstorm.  Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm.  Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod.  Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands.  Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall.  Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

First Snowstorm of the season??? - November 9-11th 2017

First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS.  Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR.  This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

An Early Season Winter Storm, too early to say!

Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morn
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, h
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

One thing is certain, there is some major cold air incoming

While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold wi
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Ocean Effect Snow Map coming in a few hours

I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

1

Short Story, a love story you can get behind

I am going to start working on a new short story, an extension of the first short story, "A love Story" the story of Marie and Walter living their dream lives in SW Florida.  Check out the first short story below.  Become a fan and interact with the author, JWN Productions, in the comment section, ask him questions. A couple, a love story.docx
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

2 or 3 Storms possible next week 25th through 31st

As of the 12z and 18z runs this morning and this afternoon suggest that we have three storm potentials this holiday week coming up.  With the NAO in flux, the PNA positive and the AO in flux, this is the best time to get snowstorms across the Northeastern US.  With the AO going negative long term and the PNA staying above neutral, we have a chance at transient ridges and shortwave amplification potential.  The first system is for Christmas Day, where an inverted trough/norlun trough bring accumu
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

February to bring cold and snow to the New England coastline

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern U
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Editing help needed for novels?

If the price is reasonable I need an editing assist for my work, my first novel is done, it needs editing work.  So it is nice and neat for an agent to select it and work with me to get published.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

12z GFS brings intrigue for New England Snow Lovers

Latest 12z GFS digs our northern stream shortwave even further southward now and develops a coastal storm just too far out to sea currently to bring substantial snows to Cape Cod.  But trends could continue towards favoring an actual closer to the coastline coastal low that could impact our area with snows.  Considering our northern stream is digging more than predicted today, this can bode well for later on mid-week period.  We need to watch the trends for today to see what the next week brings
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Snowstorm threat developing

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

A single Band of Ocean Effect Snows has developed

An ocean effect snow band has developed since 2 pm this afternoon, while staying offshore for most of the afternoon, this evening the band is producing moderate to heavy snow in squalls and perhaps some thundersnows are possible, the band is developing through surface convergence developing as winds are from the northeast to the right and north to the west of the band, this acts as a convergent band allowing lift and perhaps heavy snows developing over the Outer Cape Cod region with DBZs reachin
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0
×
×
  • Create New...