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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Miller B Snowstorms and their tracks are important, I will tell you why

There are two kinds of tracks that impact the severity of a New England blizzard, one is the NJ track, where a surface low is west of the Apps and combines with southern energy and develops a coastal storm off the New Jersey Coastline.  Normally these primary systems with NJ coastal die off before they reach eastward or northward and combine with the coastal energy to form a monster snowstorm for Cape Cod.  The second track of this type of snowstorm is the Cape Hatteras track.  Now when the prim
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**12z Model Update for storm this weekend**

Most of the afternoon and late morning model guidance has trended towards a much larger and more severe event with the exception being the GFS, while the GFS produces over 8" of snow for the Cape, it also is weaker with the storm for Saturday.  We are less than 72 hours away from the first impacts of this winter storm, mix with rain is possible on the MA coastline, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.  Winter storm watches could be issued as soon as Thursday afternoon from T
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One thing is certain, there is some major cold air incoming

While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold wi
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An Early Season Winter Storm, too early to say!

Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morn
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Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, h
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Ocean Effect Snow Map coming in a few hours

I can finally say with confidence, after watching the models the last four days the minute this threat come up, we are going to have our first Ocean Effect Snow event this season.  After watching the model data come in today, I will watch the models tonight, and after the GFS comes to pass, I will update the snowfall map I expect for Thanksgiving, the key is accumulations are likely.  Stay tuned!
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**Winter Storm Alert** final map

This is my final map for this snowstorm.  Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm.  Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod.  Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands.  Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall.  Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday.
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First Snowstorm of the season??? - November 9-11th 2017

First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS.  Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR.  This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive
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Snowstorm threat developing

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
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12z EURO December 5th forecast analysis H5 pattern

These five images are the four most reliable guidance models we have in determining a snowstorm its track, intensity and future impacts to New England.  What they all agree on is the overall setup and teleconnections featured on December 5th, 2018 their forecast in the next 7 days.  The models show a classic El Nino pattern, with a sub-tropical jet cutoff low approaching or over the Baja, CA region, with a large +PNA ridging into Alaska and the NW Canada Territories.  The GFS is the furthest nor
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12z GFS brings intrigue for New England Snow Lovers

Latest 12z GFS digs our northern stream shortwave even further southward now and develops a coastal storm just too far out to sea currently to bring substantial snows to Cape Cod.  But trends could continue towards favoring an actual closer to the coastline coastal low that could impact our area with snows.  Considering our northern stream is digging more than predicted today, this can bode well for later on mid-week period.  We need to watch the trends for today to see what the next week brings
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Short Story, a love story you can get behind

I am going to start working on a new short story, an extension of the first short story, "A love Story" the story of Marie and Walter living their dream lives in SW Florida.  Check out the first short story below.  Become a fan and interact with the author, JWN Productions, in the comment section, ask him questions. A couple, a love story.docx
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2 or 3 Storms possible next week 25th through 31st

As of the 12z and 18z runs this morning and this afternoon suggest that we have three storm potentials this holiday week coming up.  With the NAO in flux, the PNA positive and the AO in flux, this is the best time to get snowstorms across the Northeastern US.  With the AO going negative long term and the PNA staying above neutral, we have a chance at transient ridges and shortwave amplification potential.  The first system is for Christmas Day, where an inverted trough/norlun trough bring accumu
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Editing help needed for novels?

If the price is reasonable I need an editing assist for my work, my first novel is done, it needs editing work.  So it is nice and neat for an agent to select it and work with me to get published.
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February to bring cold and snow to the New England coastline

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern U
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Arctic shortwave could produce its own snow for Cape Cod next Thursday

Next Thursday, the 6z GFS has a large arctic shortwave that moves southeastward from James Bay, Canada with extremely cold air mass associated with it and a high north of the region and a storm southeast of the region putting the area in an inverted trough, with northeasterly winds enhancing snowfall from Plymouth, MA to Chatham, MA with up to .5" of QPF in spots.  I will wait until the short range models are in range, these systems are quite fickle in location and small in stature leading to cl
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