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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Winter Storm Gia could bring snow to Cape and Islands tomorrow

Models bring a chance at snow after 18z tomorrow afternoon.  Right now the NWS has a 20% chance for snow over the area, while I think it is something near 40% right now.  I am a little more bullish due to short range guidance getting more amped up in the southern stream disturbance and exiting the northern stream energy faster to the north of the storm.  This energy is causing a confluent flow over the northeastern CONUS allowing the DC winter storm to slide out to the southeast of the region, h
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**Winter Storm Alert** Southeastern New England Snowstorm Map

Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon.  It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.
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Miller B Snowstorms and their tracks are important, I will tell you why

There are two kinds of tracks that impact the severity of a New England blizzard, one is the NJ track, where a surface low is west of the Apps and combines with southern energy and develops a coastal storm off the New Jersey Coastline.  Normally these primary systems with NJ coastal die off before they reach eastward or northward and combine with the coastal energy to form a monster snowstorm for Cape Cod.  The second track of this type of snowstorm is the Cape Hatteras track.  Now when the prim
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Remembering A Blizzard

Remembering a blizzard that I believed to be epic was not so long ago where I can't remember any details.  This one was two about to be three winters ago.  The winter of 2014-2015 was boring and dull as well as rarely cold to start, the first month of that winter was warm and boring.  Christmas Day was warm, it was raining and in the 50s, cleared by the afternoon.  Cape Cod winters are not promised a thing snowfall wise.  However, since the winter of 2002-2003 winters have been kinder to the sno
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January 15-19th Second call snowfall map

This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the W
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12z GFS brings intrigue for New England Snow Lovers

Latest 12z GFS digs our northern stream shortwave even further southward now and develops a coastal storm just too far out to sea currently to bring substantial snows to Cape Cod.  But trends could continue towards favoring an actual closer to the coastline coastal low that could impact our area with snows.  Considering our northern stream is digging more than predicted today, this can bode well for later on mid-week period.  We need to watch the trends for today to see what the next week brings
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12z EURO December 5th forecast analysis H5 pattern

These five images are the four most reliable guidance models we have in determining a snowstorm its track, intensity and future impacts to New England.  What they all agree on is the overall setup and teleconnections featured on December 5th, 2018 their forecast in the next 7 days.  The models show a classic El Nino pattern, with a sub-tropical jet cutoff low approaching or over the Baja, CA region, with a large +PNA ridging into Alaska and the NW Canada Territories.  The GFS is the furthest nor
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**Winter Storm Alert** final map

This is my final map for this snowstorm.  Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm.  Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod.  Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands.  Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall.  Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday.
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Arctic shortwave could produce its own snow for Cape Cod next Thursday

Next Thursday, the 6z GFS has a large arctic shortwave that moves southeastward from James Bay, Canada with extremely cold air mass associated with it and a high north of the region and a storm southeast of the region putting the area in an inverted trough, with northeasterly winds enhancing snowfall from Plymouth, MA to Chatham, MA with up to .5" of QPF in spots.  I will wait until the short range models are in range, these systems are quite fickle in location and small in stature leading to cl
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First Snowstorm of the season??? - November 9-11th 2017

First snow of the season looks to be supported by most of the guidance we use for forecasting our weather across the CONUS.  Our weather in New England this time of year gets particularly colder as we venture to the beginning of November through the end of March, this time period is notorious for heavy snowstorms, more so towards DEC through FEB sometimes including NOV and MAR.  This winter supports a La Nina pattern, although weak, but present should feature more of a negative PNA and positive
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Editing help needed for novels?

If the price is reasonable I need an editing assist for my work, my first novel is done, it needs editing work.  So it is nice and neat for an agent to select it and work with me to get published.
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Snowstorm threat developing

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
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Short Story, a love story you can get behind

I am going to start working on a new short story, an extension of the first short story, "A love Story" the story of Marie and Walter living their dream lives in SW Florida.  Check out the first short story below.  Become a fan and interact with the author, JWN Productions, in the comment section, ask him questions. A couple, a love story.docx
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Christmas Eve Clipper? Could it be a bigger storm?

GFS and EURO, as well as the new experimental GFS, show the potential for a clipper on Christmas Eve of next week Monday.  Six days until this event, which is not a lot of time to discuss the potential.  However, models are not squishing the energy anymore and therefore not shredding the disturbance as it goes through the flow over the eastern US.  Time will tell if this event becomes more substantial, but there is potential.
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February to bring cold and snow to the New England coastline

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern U
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