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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Ocean Effect Snow Breakout and a Clipper/Coastal Storm next week

Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands.  Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough
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January 14/16th Snow event, Ocean Effect Snows

My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impa
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President's Day Snow Map Updated

Snow is beginning just on either side of midnight tonight into the rest of the day on Monday.  Models have upped the moisture produced by our secondary low with a max of around .50 to 1.00" of QPF from CHH westward to Plymouth, MA.  Winter Storm Watches issued for SE MA, RI and Cape Cod.  The Islands of Block Island, RI, Martha's Vineyard, MA and Nantucket, MA will see 2-4" with potential for rain mix with the snow.  Widespread Southern New England amounts of around 3-6", 6-12" the closer you ar
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July 28th, 2019 MLB 2019 Season Update!

The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball.  They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record.  Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better.  Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bog
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ENSO conditions for this upcoming winter

Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England co
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*Winter Storm Alert*

12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent -winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday -Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter -as Nor'easter develops a potent
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Next 10 days could spoil SNE snow lovers

I'm intrigued that a colder solution for the next three events, could spell a 10 day window of snowfall ending up way above normal for the season.  Some models are producing snowfall amounts of 100" over ME for the next two weeks.  Oh man, I wish that happens on Cape Cod instead.
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Confidence Increasing for a Significant Coastal Storm on Saturday for SE SNE

00z and 6z models have brought an increasing amount of confidence that a significant snowstorm will impact the region sometime Saturday through Saturday night.  This looks like an all snow event once again, however, the dynamics are much better with a strengthening storm center passing just southeast of the benchmark.  Snow favors Cape and Islands and most of SE MA from the BOS to PVD corridor of I95 southeastward.  Cape Cod and the Islands have the best shot at a foot or more of snow.
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3z SREFs mean remains bullish for Snow on Cape Cod

3z SREFs has a mean snowfall of 6.45" over HYA from tomorrow evening through Monday evening.  Some members are over 20" of snow and half are about 12"+, so there is a lot of spread in the means, and plus while the 00z EURO didn't show much precipitation over Cape and Islands, the model did up the ante with the upper level low and the surface low strengthening.  Also, the HRRR 6z run shows a lot of lightning developing with the surface low as it reaches the coastline, this could impact the surfac
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The business that can change the landscape of Apocalyptic thrillers

Hey everyone, I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world.  I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first.  I have a partner now.  Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out.  We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series.  Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still wor
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Massive Blizzard for Cape Cod becoming more and more likely after 12z runs March 10th

A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain.  Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomo
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Preliminary Snow Map for January 20-21st Nor'easter

The next name on the Weather Channel's annual Winter storm name's list is Winter Storm Harper, he is currently badgering the West Coast of the US.  Models bring his heavy precipitation and moisture to the New England area in the form of snow for most, and snow/rain mix southeast of BOS to Hartford line.  My snow map is the latest blend of guidance, and if the UKMET solution is right, I could be bust pretty low on the South Coast of MA, RI, and CT and it could be in the form of all snow in which
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First New England Snowstorm this upcoming week, TUE into WED

The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models.  I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below.  An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days.  As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface
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**Significant Winte Storm Likely for SNE**

A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday.  Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY.  Snowfall map below:
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00z Model Suite beginning to trend towards an impact storm on Wednesday night

Could there be impacts from a nor'easter on Cape Cod on Wednesday night into Thursday?  If there will be, it might be shortlived as snow impacts will be light if it occurs.  Judging by the model trends tonight, I am growing more confident of an impact, even though less than an inch would be possible unless something large changes like the storm is at the benchmark.  H5 has been trending towards a more amped up through the present with an Arctic jet shortwave on the backside of the longwave troug
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Could Squall line bring 100-knot wind gusts to Cape and Islands?

Today is January 24th, 2019, and we could have our first severe wind threat of the year.  Models are forecasting a very intense, somewhere around 4 above standard deviations of a low-level jet stream intensity.  100-knot is very anomalous for a low-level jet strength.  If convection can tap into this jet stream at 2000 to 5000 feet, than we can see damaging winds above 90mph enter the region sometime after 18z today.  Be tuned into the timing of the passage of the severe cold front, as these sto
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