jwilson

I think the NWS tends to lean NBM - latest run has Morgantown with a 44% chance of 8" or more. 76% chance of 6" or more. Pretty decent odds. I'm sure the typical places with orographic lift will jackpot. AGC has a 46% chance of 6" or more for the same run. Almost a coin flip. Blend mean is 4.1" total but it seems to favor an amount between 4-7" for AGC. That's definitely bullish, as even the unreliable but typically juiced SREF mean is lower, but I'm not sure what ratio that plot measures.

Definitely going to come down to where the relatively narrow band of frontogenesis sets up. It's going to be cold-cold, so the ratios should be quite decent with any kind of moderate snow growth under convergence. It's only about two to three tenths of precip total for AGH. Have to make it count because it could be the last look at snow until towards New Year's or into 2026. Christmas Week is looking too warm.

Some flizzard yesterday, but now it's looking like the next discrete event is Saturday into Sunday. Evolution looks pretty similar to the one on the 2nd. Another quick hitting 2-4" event. Initially, it looks a little colder than the last system, so perhaps there's less concern for mixing in the southern areas. Fairly decent agreement amongst the major models for a synoptic event at this range, though. The smaller details will have to get worked out later.

I'll take the 4" and run on December 2nd. That's better than many of the recent Decembers put together.

Tomorrow looks like a classic southern slider with just enough northern stream interaction to get us 2-3" and keep the rain at bay, except for those in the southernmost counties, of course. The warm tongue is undefeated. Not likely to find any big events in this pattern, but the next couple weeks look okay for those old-timey Alberta Clippers. I'm sure we'll take any snow while we can get it. It should make things look festive around these parts until the (perhaps brief) Christmas warmup.

With the first snow around - somewhere - I guess it ignites the mood. *Cue eggplant emoji* We do still have a few more weeks of meteorological fall. For now, it seems most, if not all, of the models want to build a -NAO block towards the end of the month. First step is seeing if that verifies. Next step would be determining if it's relevant this early in the year and how long it could last.

I think that's correct, but if I recall, the first one was a freeze watch? Did it actually hit freezing temperatures? I don't think we got below freezing here in Allegheny, anyway. Technically, it also says only freeze watches are discontinued after the first fall "killing" freeze. Freeze warnings may be issued at any time during growing season. I don't know how much sense that makes in autumn, but at least that's how they are described. https://www.weather.gov/pbz/wwacriteria

I'd had an observational theory for years that summer was lasting longer, but the data is now more-or-less confirming it. It is a relatively small sample size in the grand scheme of things, but we know it is warming, regardless. The next question for me is how does this affect winter long-term. I thought maybe we were moving to a 6-and-6 type split of winter and summer (six months each), but it is possible we see abbreviated winters and then those transition months that still resemble fall and spring. Maybe a 2-2-2 approach. This is decadal or longer in timeframe as the climate (gradually?) shifts. In the short-term, really any outcome remains possible.

Generally worse for snow in the East. The overall regime from the last decade+ was a -PDO-led pacific, which has resulted in a sort of snow dearth, particularly along the East Coast. Granted, we don't rely on quite the same mechanisms here in the mountains, but decreasing snow chances can impact us just the same. Especially true if you're hunting for a big one.

I'm curious why we seem to hit our peak heat in June and then have "cold" shots in August. Shouldn't that be reversed? Is that just recency bias? Kind of an interesting dynamic. This is looking forward to winter, but that dominant -PDO is something to note from this summer, how it may affect our winter.

I'm guessing rainfall deficits or surpluses are quite localized over the last few weeks. Locally, I think, we've dodged most of the rain, so July has felt quite a bit drier than either May or June here.

For those interested, KDKA had a few segments on the outbreak from 40 years ago. https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/1985-tornado-outbreak-western-pennsylvania-40-years/ This wasn't something I was aware of as a kid, but I now know people that were in Hermitage that day and had to shelter. Still the only F5 in PA history, and they've since said a couple of those F4s would have been re-classified as EF5s under the new scale.

Curious how much out-of-state help the power companies have employed for this. Due to the wide scope of the damage, it wouldn't surprise me much if things were shut down the rest of the week.

Wind was very intense as that line first blew in - classic bow echo. It was relatively brief, though. Estimate we hit gusts around 60 MPH, but I didn't get a chance to measure. Luckily we held power here, but it looks like it is out all around us. A tree fell on a nearby pizza place.

Enhanced risk tomorrow, pretty unusual around here. Looks more relevant to the north of PIT.