jwilson

While it has been a fairly cold and snowy winter, overall, especially relative to recent history, we haven't totally escaped warm spells. December was 40F+ between the 17th and 29th, including those final two days of 64F. January also had a warm burst, though shorter in duration, between the 5th and 14th. Not that anyone would remember now, haha. We're definitely losing the favorable meta-factors. All indices look to flip: -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. EPO region looks to go back to positive, as well. In fact, it looks like a lot like that December alignment. In that sense, we could, in theory, look at a two-week period (give or take) of generally warmer temps. The timing of that is unfortunate because we'd be losing some of the prime winter portions in the heart of February, our second-snowiest month, on average. The remaining question is if the pattern reloads again come March, or if we slide into an even warmer pattern long-term. I think the former is more likely, as we've seen multiple times already this year, but that is always TBD.

1-2" is the general idea for tomorrow. NBM mean is 1.4" at PIT and 1.1" at AGC with decent enough odds of >1" (70%+). Only takes 0.1" at 10:1 to get an inch, so we don't need a ton of moisture with even better ratios. Could be between 15:1 and 20:1, give or take. Latest NAM and GFS are both ~2" according to BUFKIT. Next weekend still a ways out. Nothing really interesting on the operationals. Cutters and other sheared-out messes. Ensembles have also lost a bit of the signal, so I think odds are against anything relevant for now. It will likely change.

Imagine losing Stoutland and Fangio in the same offseason. Thank goodness Fangio decided to stay another year. Sounds like last year's dysfunction got to Stoutland, though, which is extremely disappointing. What a waste.

Not that I enjoy refuting Schwartz here, but wasn't the -AO from 2009/10 winter much more sustained, overall? It averaged -3.4 in December, -2.6 in January, and -4.3 in February. The AO actually had a positive average this past December. January is clearly going to be negative, and I'd guess February is, too, but it's flowing positive in the short-term and the rest of the month is TBD. Even in 12/13, there were negative AO departures from October to March.

As RitualOfTheTrout has said, we're going to enter a relaxation period with the AO shooting back toward positive, the PNA coming down toward -1, and the NAO block relaxing, as well. Looks like my transition period storm isn't quite evident, at least not yet. We'll see if anything pops up before midweek aside from the clippers. There's another potential threat around Valentine's/President's Day weekend. Everything remains in flux after President's Day. The AO hints at going right back down, but the long-range MJO might enter hostile territory (warm phases). The ensembles do show another warm-up after President's Day. I would guess it is only temporary, if it happens at all. Long-range warm looks have failed this winter, but the pattern will reshuffle and might wobble until something takes over.

I like the moves in tandem because to me, they signal an organization that knows what is wrong and is trying more elaborate methods to fix it. A retread OC with more experience might have more immediate value for a team that wants to contend, but this move has more upside, IMHO. Higher risk, higher reward type of deal. It seemed like a good process to get here. Lurie and Howie have a good track record, in this regard. I also didn't think any of the experienced OC's to hire were all that intriguing.

We might get a few light snows in between, but I think the next period to watch for something more interesting is that Sunday-Tuesday timeframe, Feb 8-10. Some models have teased an event. I've seen some favorable looks, but nothing incredibly consistent yet. A few things to watch. Another neutral slide in the PNA around that time. Long-range hints at a 50/50 and -NAO. Ridge placement could be ideal. Maybe more chances with the -AO remaining quite negative. Not even sure yet when this pattern is keyed to break down.

Weekend threat is a wave spacing issue, it looks to me. There's not enough separation with the elongated energy at the front-end (the main lobe), and the backside piece of energy isn't phasing in to the main pool. In bigger storms with this kind of arrangement, you'd typically see the stretched lobe break off into two pieces, and the backside piece would phase with other energy while the other piece out front acts as a block. It was always an extremely delicate setup. Probably not worth investing in unless we're <48 hours and getting consistent results. Likewise hard to predict because there's so much energy flying around.

Differences between 6Z Euro-AI and 12Z Euro-AI were very subtle. If you look at 12Z, the backside energy isn't getting phased into the storm as quickly. At 6Z, that energy was almost immediately getting pulled into the mix. I think that has to do with spacing between the waves and the elongation of the lobe itself. If it is more stretched, it is closer to the backside energy and more likely to phase the two. A more condensed lobe separates and moves too far east. Ridge position looks nearly identical to me.

I measured another 3" since noon, which includes the half inch I got while shoveling. Rates were back up over an inch an hour, but the dryslot looms until the upper level trough passes through later. That's somewhere between 7.5" and 12" total. We might be able to manage a foot if the backside lasts long enough. Haven't hit that mark since December of 2020.

Too bad we couldn't pair a system like this with some kind of blocking upstream. This would have been a true big dog in that instance, but someone on the northern edge would have gotten fringed. Blocking has been the hardest thing to come by in the last ten years, though. Maybe have to wait for an El Nino return, or we could get surprised again this year. We're on the front end of this pattern. There may be more chances in the next few weeks.

Lull coming into the city proper now. Looks like Youngstown area might be the big winners. Persistent banding up there. Outside of NE and central PA locations.

Lots of sleet signatures down in Greene County, WV panhandle. Hopefully that northern progression ceases. Our snow growth has clearly diminished for now. Pixie dust.

Couldn't keep up with the snow shoveling. Inch an hour rates if not more. I measured between 4.5" and 9" so total somewhere between there, lol. Snow is drifting quite a bit because of the powder consistency.

I do think this one has some overperforming potential. It will be an interesting case study when it's all over with, and we can review how the microclimate handles these two intense competing forces. I could see things going both ways, truthfully, so good luck to everyone and may your snow stay powder.