Drz1111

94th street on UES: lots of dime size hail, biggest stones were nickel sized. A++ hailstorm would buy again.

Pretty decent little ice storm up here in Cape Elizabeth. I’d say about 0.5” of accretion? Definitely lost some branches out back.

Heavy sleet in Cape Elizabeth. Bummer.

https://youtu.be/0TLKcYJZyxo it’s rippin’ out my door

Just a pure blizzard up here on the water in Cape Elizabeth. Lord knows how heavily its snowing because the temp is 26 and the wind is 25G40, so its nothing but drifts and bare ground and smashed up dendrites suspended in a thick haze. My first storm here and it's awesome.

As an aside, if I ever went back to school the project I want to do is applying this to the west to see if you can use it to untangle the different rain shadows and such. The simple rain shadow / terrain explanation doesn't do a very good job of predicting Western climate.

Based on where the pivot looks to be, SW CT is going to verify on the high end of the forecasts. That big band is slowing down overhead.

Cape Elizabeth, ME. NAM is a nothing burger here. No tertiary development and the big band is at a min when overhead. Canadians have us on the cold side of the tertiary low that becomes the dominant consolidated circulation - so we get 20" para has us at 16", but mostly from the first big band with some wrap around mood flakes. Euro has been waffling back and forth between 10" and 16" from run to run. Uncle. No idea what's coming.

Literally have reliable models showing anywhere from 5" to 20" with virga 60 miles to my south. I am rarely salty about DA MODLEZ but this is pushing even my tolerance for this [stuff].

The storm is like literally happening right now and I would be totally unsurprised by anything between 6" and 16" in Cape Elizabeth. It's almost stupid how uncertain it all is. Also, the ensembles suck for capturing the actual spread of possible outcomes.

What’s the latest Euro showing for the Son of Blizzard tomorrow in Maine?

Ugh. Tertiary low on NAM too far east for anyone this side of MDI.

It will shock no one who has lived through even one of these to learn that the WAA is stronger and faster than modeled down south. Philly area is mixing earlier than forecast. Yes, I want to see your surprised face. Marginally helpful up here, I imagine.

Shows up, albeit not as strong, on the GFS para too. And of course the UKMET turns that last piece into the main show.

Do you have a good analog to this system? While the numbers aren't historic or anything, it seems a bit different from many of the classic storms? The best I came up with was "Like 1996, but if you turned the dial down from 10 to 8 in every dimension other than, perhaps, duration".