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MN/ND Snow Event Nov 21/22

baroclinic_instability

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mnweather

mnweather

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This thread has died a little but I thought I would revive it since it is more than likely that a decent snowfall event is likely with this system across northern ND and into northern MN, although the latter is more up in the air. It seems there will be some heavier mesoscale banding with the aforementioned upper level coupled jet and strong warm air advection through 850-650 or hpa pretty much co-located--in other words, low level forcing will be over a rather narrow region with potential for better than good snowfall, it seems 3-4 band likely with 6-7+ possible in a narrow corridor somewhere near or just north of GFK--good for you SNowdUnder guys. NAM sucks, but as I expected, is shifting southward as it continues to fix its "phase-shifting" problem alluded to earlier. I have a feeling GFK will begin lofting the WW Advisory for northern counties soon, GFK after all 0Z guidance is in. Don't be surprised to see a few Winter Storm Warnings to come up during this event once it gets going and they can better locate areas of heavier banding,

I have been thinking about Winter Storm Warnings for some areas too. What are your thoughts on the Monday system? I have a 40% chance of snow with it? Is it a stronger system than Sat. nights?

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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I have been thinking about Winter Storm Warnings for some areas too. What are your thoughts on the Monday system? I have a 40% chance of snow with it? Is it a stronger system than Sat. nights?

For you, it isn't looking as good as ND and northwestern MN. The NAM track is too far south, but the overall track and speed will take the nose of warm air over your region, so I don't think you will see much in the way of accumulations where you are. Those will likely stay near the Canada border. Good news is potential looks better for your area with the main trough later in the week.

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mnweather

mnweather

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For you, it isn't looking as good as ND and northwestern MN. The NAM track is too far south, but the overall track and speed will take the nose of warm air over your region, so I don't think you will see much in the way of accumulations where you are. Those will likely stay near the Canada border. Good news is potential looks better for your area with the main trough later in the week.

I know the updated DLH discussion mentions mixing going on for the weekend storm. Are you saying mixing for Monday too or snow only for Monday?

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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I know the updated DLH discussion mentions mixing going on for the weekend storm. Are you saying mixing for Monday too or snow only for Monday?

A mix with all snow under heavier showers, depends on what elevation you are at. Shoreline will prolly see hardly any snow. Accumulations will be pretty low though where you are, heavy wet stuff but not heavy enough to accumulate like the big storm that dumped all over the twin cities. Likely less than .5 inch, could see some ice pellets.

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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This thread has died a little but I thought I would revive it since it is more than likely that a decent snowfall event is likely with this system across northern ND and into northern MN, although the latter is more up in the air. It seems there will be some heavier mesoscale banding with the aforementioned upper level coupled jet and strong warm air advection through 850-650 hpa pretty much over the same small region--in other words, low level forcing will be over a rather narrow region and enhanced through a narrow zone with potential for better than good snowfall, it seems 3-4 band likely with 6-7+ possible in a narrow corridor somewhere near or just north of GFK where the snow factors will be pretty decent through the aforementioned 850-650 zone--good for you SNowdUnder guys. NAM sucks, but as I expected, is shifting southward as it continues to fix its "phase-shifting" problem alluded to earlier. I have a feeling GFK will begin lofting the WW Advisory for northern counties soon, GFK after all 0Z guidance is in. Don't be surprised to see a few Winter Storm Warnings to come up during this event once it gets going and they can better locate areas of heavier banding,

Ya i agree with your analysis and snow amounts. it was nice to have the nam finally come back into reality with the 0z run and trend towards the gfs. I'm not sure how much banding we will get out of this, advection looks good and i'm liking the coupled jet structure. Snow growth regions look good for dendrites so no worries on that pva seems to skirt the western area of the region. We will have plenty of moisture with mixing ratios around 2-3 g/kg. Still thinking under warning criteria due to the drawn out nature of the event but i can see a few 6-7 inch reports. We have our snow boards deployed north of the city and will be positioning the DOW north of the city as well. I'm hoping that if we do end up with some decent banding structure it can park itself right over the DOW for a while.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Ya i agree with your analysis and snow amounts. it was nice to have the nam finally come back into reality with the 0z run and trend towards the gfs. I'm not sure how much banding we will get out of this, advection looks good and i'm liking the coupled jet structure. Snow growth regions look good for dendrites so no worries on that pva seems to skirt the western area of the region. We will have plenty of moisture with mixing ratios around 2-3 g/kg. Still thinking under warning criteria due to the drawn out nature of the event but i can see a few 6-7 inch reports. We have our snow boards deployed north of the city and will be positioning the DOW north of the city as well. I'm hoping that if we do end up with some decent banding structure it can park itself right over the DOW for a while.

I think you should start a thread somewhere about SnowdUnder...get the information out. It is a neat project, I know a little about it but not a lot.

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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I think you should start a thread somewhere about SnowdUnder...get the information out. It is a neat project, I know a little about it but not a lot.

Ya i've been thinking about either linking the blog and our facebook page with a small explanation or trying to explain the project, only problem is i'm only involved in the forecasting side of the project and possibly running the DOW's depending on how many people are available on a given day and really aren't that familar with the research aircraft surface obs team or the und radar team. I think i am going to start a thread actually. Thanks for talking me into it

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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gotta stay up all night tonight babysitting the north-pol radar at und. Gonna be a long night........

here's a link to the radar if anyone wants it, in theory it should be updating every 10 minutes unless it fails and i'm sleeping or something else occurs.

http://radar.atmos.und.edu/layout.php?page=animation&product=0&loop=0&Submit=Submit

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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gotta stay up all night tonight babysitting the north-pol radar at und. Gonna be a long night........

here's a link to the radar if anyone wants it, in theory it should be updating every 10 minutes unless it fails and i'm sleeping or something else occurs.

http://radar.atmos.u...0&Submit=Submit

The NAM is really catching on to that small dry layer in the low levels creeping north on RADAR, I wonder if that will saturate here. I would have to think it will with that much low level ascent.

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mnweather

mnweather

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This first wave will do hardly anything. I am guessing the 4" prediction is with the second wave Monday night.

The DLH NWS actually predicts up to 4" for me through tomorrow but I do not believe it will happen. What are you thinking for Monday night up here? 2-4" possible?

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mnweather

mnweather

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I think 4 inches is a good bet, maybe up to 5. The second storm looks even better though. Total could be getting close to double digits with both storms combined.

I m pretty confident Monday's storm will be better than todays. The one at the end of the week should be good as well. Are you thinking some 6"+ totals with the Thanksgiving system. You nailed the one that I had today.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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I m pretty confident Monday's storm will be better than todays. The one at the end of the week should be good as well. Are you thinking some 6"+ totals with the Thanksgiving system. You nailed the one that I had today.

Tough call in this pattern, GFS has been overall pretty good though and it pulls it out faster than some of the other guidance. I still think a solid 4" next system, 5+ seems a good bet with the Thanksgiving storm without giving it a long analysis (I have been gone all day, busy, etc.).

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Wednesday looks like 8"+ for this area according to DLH. About 2-4" in my area with the current one.

8+ might be a bit optimistic as the system will be moving a tick faster and will be a bit stronger resulting in a snow band displaced a bit farther N, still should see nice snow, 4-5" seems reasonable at this time. The snow combined with the wind/blowing snow should yield a winter storm warning by Wednesday night.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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How much snow? That region of moderate snow has parked itself over the area.

from DLH

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION             	ST  COUNTY       	TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 8.00   DEER LAKE                MN  ITASCA       	0746 PM
 8.00   3 E ORR                  MN  ST. LOUIS        0503 PM
            	11 INCH SNOW DEPTH
 7.50   KABETOGAMA           	MN  ST. LOUIS        0748 PM
 7.50   1 W CASS LAKE            MN  CASS         	0415 PM
            	REPORTED BY BELTRAMI COUNTY EMERGENCY
            	MANAGER.
 7.50   2 S NORTHOME         	MN  ITASCA       	0349 PM
 5.50   LITTLEFORK           	MN  KOOCHICHING      0500 PM
            	10 INCH SNOW DEPTH.
 5.30   2 SW LITTLEFORK          MN  KOOCHICHING      0407 PM
 5.00   GRAND RAPIDS         	MN  ITASCA       	0815 PM
 4.80   CHISHOLM             	MN  ST. LOUIS        0646 PM
            	STORM TOTAL FROM 7AM. SNOW RATES MODERATE TO
            	HEAVY CURRENTLY...WITH BIG FLAKES.
 4.00   1 S WALKER           	MN  CASS         	0600 PM
 4.00   COOK                 	MN  ST. LOUIS        0335 PM
            	STILL SNOWING HARD AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.
            	POOR ROAD CONDITIONS.
 3.60   INTERNATIONAL FALLS      MN  KOOCHICHING      0600 PM
            	3.6 INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL THUS FAR. STILL
            	SNOWING. 0.24 INCHES OF LIQUID.
 3.50   BOWSTRING                MN  ITASCA       	0315 PM
 3.20   COTTON               	MN  ST. LOUIS        0807 PM
 2.00   5 W TWO HARBORS          MN  LAKE         	0639 PM
 1.80   HOYT LAKES           	MN  ST. LOUIS        0709 PM
            	MODERATE SNOW FALLING STILL.
 1.70   5 WNW WASHBURN       	WI  BAYFIELD     	0812 PM
            	MODERATE SNOW FALLING
 1.40   5 NW DULUTH              MN  ST. LOUIS        0752 PM
            	MEASURED AT THE DULUTH AIRPORT. STILL
            	SNOWING.
 1.30   LUTSEN               	MN  COOK         	0740 PM
 1.10   7 NW TWO HARBORS     	MN  LAKE         	0748 PM
 1.00   SAGINAW                  MN  ST. LOUIS        0748 PM
 1.00   FORT RIPLEY              MN  CROW WING        0712 PM
 1.00   13 N BRULE           	WI  DOUGLAS          0539 PM
            	LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT CURRENT TIME.
 1.00   LITTLE MARAIS            MN  LAKE         	0452 PM
 0.50   SUPERIOR             	WI  DOUGLAS          0552 PM

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