Invest 94L—30% 2 day and 50% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

Now that the follow up wave in the Tropical Atlantic has been designated as Invest 94L and has a decent chance of development, I'm breaking out discussion into a new thread. 

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or 
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

 

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: ends up N of PR as a TD moving WNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.1N 56.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2026 108 17.1N 56.8W 1013 24
0000UTC 19.08.2026 120 18.4N 58.3W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2026 132 19.2N 60.4W 1014 26
0000UTC 20.08.2026 144 20.0N 62.1W 1015 27
1200UTC 20.08.2026 156 20.6N 64.3W 1015 28
0000UTC 21.08.2026 168 21.4N 67.0W 1014 28

[WxWatcher007]

Models really backed off this one too.