West Central Florida Jan 31 - Feb 1 Winter Event

[TPAwx]

Expecting significant temp departures and strong onshore flow as main impacts.  Extract from TB discussion highlights precip dynamics

Last dusting of snow in TB was 1977.

As has been mentioned with previous discussions, there will be a
number of hazards associated with this sequence of events that run
from a low probability of occurrence to a very high probability of
occurrence. Starting with the highest likelihood of occurrence:

- Extremely hazardous marine conditions will develop over the
  weekend and a Gale Watch is in effect for Saturday through Sunday
  morning, and this will likely be upgraded to a warning later
  today. Also, a few gusts to storm force will be possible.

- The arctic air will also usher in the coldest temperatures of
  the year. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all west
  central and southwest Florida with the exception of Pinellas,
  coastal Hillsborough, Coastal Manatee, Sarasota, Coastal
  Charlotte, and Lee counties. The criteria for an Extreme Cold
  Watch is for the potential of wind chill values of 10 degrees or
  less for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties...and wind
  chill values of 20 degrees or less for Pasco, Pinellas,
  Hillsborough, Polk, Manatee, Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto,
  Highlands, Charlotte, and Lee counties. A Freeze Watch is also
  in effect for much of the region Saturday night into Sunday
  morning and Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of
  the forecast area both Saturday night and Sunday night. A hard
  freeze will be possible across the nature coast Saturday night
  and Sunday night with lows in the lower to mid 20s each night.
  Temperatures across the interior are expected to be in the mid
  to upper 20s both nights...with lower to mid 30s near the coast
  and across southwest Florida. Gusty northwest winds will create
  wind chills Saturday night in the single digits to teens across
  the nature coast. Wind chills are expected to be in the teens
  across the interior, and generally in the 20s elsewhere. The
  wind is expected to taper off Sunday night, with wind chills
  generally about 3 to 5 degrees below the ambient temperature.

- Temperatures will run about 20 to 25 degrees below climatic
  normals Saturday night through Sunday night. Could see some
  record low temperatures set Saturday night/Sunday morning across
  the region...some low max temperature records set on
  Sunday...and some record low temperatures again Sunday
  night/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents are expected to develop
  Saturday through Sunday. There is also a low to moderate
  probability of high surf.

- The strong northwest winds may also create water levels along the
  coast from Citrus to northern Pinellas county to run 1 to 2
  feet above astronomical normal tide levels Saturday and Saturday
  night. This is also in the low to moderate probability of
  occurrence.

- The strong winds and CAA over the coastal waters will create a
  very unstable turbulent boundary layer. Residual low level
  moisture will likely allow an area of cold air strato-cu to
  develop over the eastern Gulf on Saturday and Saturday night.
  With these extreme conditions in place, it would be expected to
  see a few light showers or sprinkles to develop over the coastal
  waters...Gulf effect type light showers. The backside or
  northern extent of the cloud shield could see temperatures
  dropping into the mid to upper 30s Saturday evening and after
  midnight...which could allow the light rain showers to become
  light mixed snow/rain showers or light snow showers/flurries.
  Trajectories would indicate that the clouds may advect locally
  onshore...with the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation
  from Citrus to Pinellas/Hillsborough counties. This is a low
  probability event...but not out of the realm of possibility. It
  will be a race between whether temperatures can drop into the
  30s before the drier air wins out and pushes any light shower
  activity south of the area. It`s common in scenarios like this
  that drizzle or very light rain gets reported as snow...when in
  fact surface temperatures don`t support that possibility.

[Newman]

Looking forward to this cold here in Tallahassee. Might take a nice long walk Sunday morning in the single digit wind chills ha. The 3k NAM continues to show a Gulf effect snow band setting up across Pasco and northern Hillsborough counties around 10-11pm tomorrow. I'm excited to see the potential MCAO cloud streets across the Gulf on satellite imagery. That's something you don't see everyday!