Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations

[cstrunk]

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms in parts of N/NE Texas this evening, if the cap can break. If North Texas can see more sun today, there will be a higher chance of storms. Large hail would be the main threat, but all hazards would be possible. The HRRR shows storms firing over DFW around 6 pm. Higher threats exist farther northeast in Arkansas/Tennessee.

Similar story tomorrow for parts of Central/East Texas. Higher severe threats farther east into southern Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

[Stx_Thunder]

Extremely interesting convective factors that lead to a (major hurricane force) straight-line wind event last Friday, over the mid-coast region around Point Comfort near Matagorda Bay. In the Victoria area.

That max. recorded wind gust was even stronger than the EF-1 tornado damage (110 mph) that was surveyed in Victoria county that same day. And from the same, quite large & intense thunder cluster that developed near SAT around midday and intensified heading east-southeast toward the mid-upper coast in the early afternoon. Both that system and several other clusters late Thursday night - early Friday traveling W - E along the I-10 corridor from Del Rio - Houston (behind sfc cold front), also had a good amount of powerful + CG lightning strikes.

[Stx_Thunder]

Aside from today's svr threat, things still look to remain convectively active through next week in the state, with at least a conditional svr risk later this week or weekend over the southern half. And more of the state again next week.

Even if this week's front (does) manage to push south of the state, it does not look like it's going to be enough to actually shut off the thunder risk. Especially, a cutoff Low that looks to set up shop out west late this week.

Not surprising being in May. But especially back in EN territory now already. There has also been a + PNA phase ongoing lately that likely also contributed to last week's bout of sig convective severe events in the state. Aside from the latter/early phase unit circle MJO.

-  -  -

Next week, what's most concerning to me right now is how steep ML Lapse Rates are forecast. Current projected values are bordering on crazy for (May) standards. Normally, no more than -7 to -8 range from what I've seen over the years in May.

Steeper ML lapse rates in the state have easily been a notable trend (so far) this year.

'Definitely going to be LOTS of lightning in most cells no doubt, for sure if these kind of forecast values (-8 to -9 range) hold with ample CAPE and not much CIN likely to be in place again by mid-week.