Terpeast 2025-26 Winter Outlook - Edition 1

[Terpeast]

Not a whole lot has changed this month, so I decided to go ahead and issue my outlook for this winter. I'll keep it brief and simple:

• Overall winter feel: Meh, but not full-on blowtorch.
• Cool ENSO/weak basin-wide Nina coupled with -QBO
• Strong -PDO trying to turn the corner but not quite getting there
• -IOD bracketing MJO activity to phases 3-7 with limited 8-1-2 activity
• More weak troughing east of Japan pushing N. Pac High east into GOA (this helps us)
• Mostly -PNA, but with some +PNA episodes with plenty of Canadian cold air to tap into
• Weakly +NAO on the means with at least 2 or 3 bonafide -AO/-NAO blocking episodes
• Snowfall guess: 9-11" for the forum, maybe a few inches more for CAPE and northward of him

Predicted mean DJF NH Pattern based on listed analogs (2021-22 weighted twice):

SST changes last 15 days:

Extrapolating cool SST/troughing east of Japan while warm blob pushes to the east. Cool area in GOA probably will not last. Atlantic pattern seems neutral towards NAO bias, but increased risk of SE ridge linkage with -NAO.

 

Temp and Precip DJF Maps:

Warmer and drier across the SE. Mild East Coast, but not torchy, plenty of cold air to tap into, but timing and SE ridge linkage will be an issue to contend with at times. Rockies, Upper MW, Great Lakes, and non-coastal SNE and all of NNE are poised to have a great winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Nice job.

Thanks.