"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.

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Nor'easter coming Sunday-Monday though track uncertain ranging from coastal hugger e of NJ worst case scenario to further southeast and less impact.

Graphics added are the Wednesday afternoon's WPC 5 day rainfall forecast ending 00z Tue 10/14,  

The WPC D5 concerns for excessive rainfall issued this Wednesday afternoon - Isolated 4" in the slight risk area but general 1-2" foreseen for much of the NYC subforum between 6AM EDT Sunday and 6AM Tuesday. 

Also added 4 successive 24 hr forecasts of the evolving 18z/8 GEFS 5H field which I hope repeats this winter... a phaser with a southeastward diving cold core strong short wave through the Great Lakes this weekend that ingests-draws northward - the moist trough currently developing along the se USA coast and results in a fairly intense storm along the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday.  The EC EPS 24 hr max wind gust tool has been cyclically consistently offering 60+ MPH in the western Atlantic and 50+ MPH along parts of the NJ-LI coasts.  If this occurs, in conjunction with heavy rainfall, fully leaved tree branches would break or even uproot in some locations.  No guarantees on wind strength at this time 

The strong chilly high pressure system that is developing into our area now will become part of a eastern Canada block and set up a strong easterly gradient over our area and should result in multiple cycles of at least minor coastal flooding with a pretty strong potential for at least one high tide cycle moderate coastal flooding (even outlier LOW PROB spotty major) for either the midday Sunday or midday Monday high tide cycle along the NJ coast. Full moon is past us so the astronomical higher tide cycles are lowering and helps reduce the chance of more than moderate coastal flooding.  Still this is 4-5 days away, so intensity, track and system evolution are not locked into a worst case scenario and will ultimately determine impacts.   Erosion will occur...severity unknown. 

It appears the ECAI  has been most cyclically stable predicting this storm for our NYC subforum dating back to I think the 00z/4 cycle. 

 

Did not look at standard deviations departures of the 850 MB inflow but suffice to say, its stronger that normal. 

PWAT generally near 1.5" minimizes potential for much greater than 4" though the 2" PWAR axis lies just offshore. 

posted 741PM/8