Invest 94L—30% 2 day and 80% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

This is a pretty wild setup. Everything is on the table. I can't recall two invests being this close to one another. 

 

[GaWx]

12Z UK 94L: TD just NE of C Bahamas moving ESE

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.5N 77.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2025 108 24.5N 77.2W 1008 28
1200UTC 29.09.2025 120 25.0N 77.0W 1008 27
0000UTC 30.09.2025 132 25.0N 77.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 30.09.2025 144 24.4N 76.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 01.10.2025 156 23.9N 75.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 01.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

[WxWatcher007]

Although there’s not much in the way of low level center, there’s a pretty robust mid level reflection as evidenced by visible satellite and  TJUA radar. Not sure I buy the 12z GFS evolution. 

[WxWatcher007]

I may be wrong, but I don’t recall the NHC delivering key messages for an undesignated or non-PTC system.

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit.

 One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975.

GEFS

 

EPS