WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry. There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle. The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The 12Z UKMET threatens Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N 61.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 22.5N 61.5W 1010 35 0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 22.5N 62.5W 1008 37 1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 23.1N 63.5W 1007 38 0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 23.7N 64.1W 1005 45 1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 24.5N 66.1W 1003 41 0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 25.6N 66.8W 1000 43 1200UTC 29.09.2025 168 27.2N 66.4W 997 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago This one could very well end up further west than Gabrielle. Would definitely watch in Bermuda. I expect the odds to go up at 2pm. It still has disorganized convection but it looks like it’s trying to consolidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Good candidate for our next major… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Good candidate for our next major… The 12Z slams Bermuda with this on 10/1 as a 954 MH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now