93L – “Inactive” Season Posting Check-In (NEVER MIND)

[GaWx]

 I’m surprised it’s still at 30%. That seems high to me:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf Coast (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low 
pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast 
of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest 
of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves 
westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the 
chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through 
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather 
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Beven

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m surprised it’s still at 30%. That seems high to me:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf Coast (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low 
pressure area over northern Gulf is located just south of the coast 
of Mississippi. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
remains disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest 
of the center. Some development could occur before the system moves 
westward into Louisiana later today or tonight, although the 
chances of the system developing into a tropical depression are low.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through 
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather 
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Beven

might loop de loop

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northern Gulf Coast and Southeastern Louisiana (AL93):
Satellite, surface, and radar data indicate that the broad low 
pressure area is moving inland over southeastern Louisiana, and 
that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains 
disorganized and located mainly to the west and southwest 
of the center. Little development is expected while the center 
remains near the coast this afternoon and tonight, and the system 
is expected to weaken as it moves farther inland on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of the north-central Gulf Coast through 
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather 
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

[GaWx]

It should be lowered to 0%. I consider this to be a big fail for the ICON, which of course is good news in this case.

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It should be lowered to 0%. I consider this to be a big fail for the ICON, which of course is good news in this case.

No wonder but who knows it may loop back