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Uncertain for NYC forum but TSTMS may be a problem later tonight or Monday

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Modeling looks terribly slow and ineffective for two bands of convection this evening in NYS/PA. Running much faster. If this is true... parts of our NYC forum, at least se NYS and nw NJ are going to experience a brief heavy shower or gusty thunderstorm between 815PM and midnight  and possibly again near 2AM Monday.  That leaves us with what for Monday afternoon? I think a pretty ripe environment for big storms maybe even up just N of I80...with interestingly large mid level lapse rates, especially I78 south.  Not promising big stuff near NYC but it seems to me modeling (not SPC - check their Marginal D2) is missing potential svr/ff, especially southern part of our forum Monday afternoon 2P-7P.   Will rereview how things are going Monday morning around 7A, but for now... it looks like big heat has generated big storms Sunday evening just west of the forum and I think very poorly modeled. If someone has seen a model that is performing admirably in PA/NYS to the Poconos and Catskills, please let us know. 


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Good Monday morning everyone,

Have attached what happened since 6PM yesterday, lightning, severe reports and radar for our area (most of it after 22z/19 though there were a few isolated cells early Sunday afternoon in se NYS/ne PA). The reason for the attachments... the overnight reality was not well modeled by the models including the HRRR and SPC HREF (and still not as of 6AM/20). Which leads me to this afternoon.  Please see SPCD1 and local NWS offices for details on any evolution. I know most of the models are dry except UK/Canadian have spotty action but I'm not convinced.

I suppose most of NYC forum is out of the convection this afternoon, but I'm still alert for isolated eastward moving severe storms in our area developing 2-4PM this afternoon I95 corridor eastward, inclusive of extreme southern CT, LI, eastern and southern NJ.  Plenty of instability with a surface trough nearby.  Wind direction will start sorting itself out with mixing around 9 or 10AM and then we'll see what we have.  If no new CU fields ~11A, then probably nothing. Mid level lapse rates increase this afternoon-especially south of the modeled 500MB  -5C cap aligned just nw of I95 at 18z (thats why I chose I95 corridor southeastward and also thinking back to yesterdays SPC D2). GFS CAPE looks more reasonable then that very low 18z CAPE of the EC. 637A/20

Screen Shot 2020-07-20 at 6.11.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-07-20 at 6.13.04 AM.png


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