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I'll go on record and say that I think it will be a Modoki El Nino. Nino 1.2 is still pretty cold. I was looking at years that went from a "La Nina look" by cold water location/structure, like last winter to an El Nino Modoki, its an interesting list of years. Last year, you had an earlier transition from La Nina to near-El Nino, and it was a Modoki La Nina initially. So you get different analogs.

The Eastern Atlantic & solar conditions need to be factored in for the coming patterns, both are contributing less energy to the system than in a while. Without looking at the maps, I think 1926, 1951, 1963, 1968, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014 all have some similarities. The El Ninos following an El Nino are probably the worst matches conceptually: 1940, 1941, 1958, 1977, 1987, 2015. Big El Ninos probably not a good match either: 1930, 1940, 1941, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2015.

Tentatively like 1951 (x2), 1963, 1968 (x2), 1976 (x2), 1986 (x2), 1997, 2006 (x2), 2009 (x2), 2014.

On the JAMSTEC classification, 1968-69 and 2009-10 are the most extreme El Nino Modoki events, so have to see if that happens.

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I always always make the point that the subsurface is a better indicator than the surface. This is yet another example of it. The Northern Hemisphere is transitioning to El Nino now, with the subsurface Ninoish and the surface not.  

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

 

Subsurface is +3 in El Nino-warm area, and Nino 3.4 is still negative

610temp.new.gif

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I tried to convince you in February, that SOI drop to -7.7 should never happen in a healthy La Nina. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of an El Nino yet, but you did have a similar massive drop in March 1997 when the system began transitioning away from the near-Nina conditions to the big El Nino. I have certain organic indicators for ENSO, since the SW is most sensitive to it, and they were all indicating fairly rapid collapse in Feb/Mar. 

I do wonder when the next East-based El Nino will come - its been ages now.  

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I remember someone said the Kelvin wave during La Nina as strong as preceded rises to at least +Neutral even though the net effect was a cooler, more La Nina-like subsurface. And a monster -PNA for a few weeks. I thought this was interesting because it verified, the subsurface warming in the east is movement from that Kelvin Wave. It happened before the La Nina peaked is my point. 

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My view has always been that surface conditions (weather) lags by about 6-weeks from the ocean changes. So I'd say we transition to Neutral through June, and then we either stay Neutral or transition to El Nino. The Nina is dead on the weeklies now. I just started a new job, so I can't post the weeklies early in the morning like I was before, if someone else wants to do it.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA  
 07MAR2018     26.0-0.4     26.0-0.9     26.3-0.7     28.0-0.1
 14MAR2018     25.8-0.7     26.3-0.7     26.5-0.7     28.1-0.1
 21MAR2018     25.2-1.2     26.5-0.7     26.5-0.8     28.2 0.0
 28MAR2018     25.5-0.6     26.7-0.6     26.7-0.7     28.2-0.1
 04APR2018     24.7-1.1     27.1-0.3     27.1-0.5     28.3-0.1
 11APR2018     24.3-1.3     27.2-0.3     27.3-0.4     28.5 0.0
 18APR2018     24.1-1.2     27.2-0.3     27.6-0.2     28.6 0.1

Nino 1.2 is pretty impressive for April so far, if it beats 2013, coldest since the mid-1990s. Favors a cold Washington state, and also dryness in Arizona for May pretty strongly.

lZTJVLP.png

 

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