AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 5 waves of +anomaly out weigh all cold in the Hemisphere over a 21-day period. Since 1948 this has never happened before. Global Temps are warm Models I think are not initializing things right because this is like a spike. When spikes happens, model will skew in the other direction (cold) because they are based on math I made a point that storms around New Years and the general cold predicted by models is significantly overdone/off. The pattern will likely verify warmer, watter, and likely north with storms tracks. You will see this trend in models pretty much every run starting now. LR Models are sitting on a lot of potential energy to just be released (model error). (Siberia) My guess it will balance the -anomaly on the other side of globe. averages is that such a stagnant, one-directional pattern will organize around a point later in time. 10mb warming has occurred since Dec 8. And is expected to continue short term, This strongly correlated to negative NAO on 2-4 week lag. Understand that all dispersed, scattered +energy will come together to create super +anomaly pattern, because that is the law of averages and balance, and I predict this will begin over eastern Canada and the NAO region in early January Then as we shift into Nina-forcing which long term models are already hinting at, the warmth shifts into the SE United States. It has the potential to get really warm, record breaking warm. For reference, 5 years ago in March 2012 we had +17 anomalies for the entire month, and this pattern has more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 Strongest +anomaly 500mb on record for United States is March 2012; Off the West Coast, US 2013-2015 had some record positives too. November 2017 Stratosphere was similar to 2012. It could be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aperson Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 While investigating the Arctic warm anomaly intrusion into the Bering Strait I found December 1, 2007 to be a good analog of December 23, 2017. In particular, similar MJO phase 7 exit with high zonal available potential energy results in a similar 500mb geopotential height configuration in the Arctic. Both have a loose wavenumber 5 configuration, and Arctic 2m surface temperatures are very similar for each case. I think you may find other analogs by searching for strong MJO Phase 7 exits around Nov-Feb. I used this paper as the source for Dec 1, 2007 and for looking for MJO correlates: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 GFS ensembles are at the end of their time lol. But They show this idea nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2018 Author Share Posted January 20, 2018 Pattern relaxation = warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 The last week has definitely been amazingly warm nationally. There are certain looks to this winter that make me think its just last year + more volatile + delayed by six to ten weeks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 26, 2018 Author Share Posted January 26, 2018 570 heights over almost the Arctic circle. PV split in 4 symmetrical waves around. More cold than I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 There it is. 588 heights in DC on day 6 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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