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Sophisticated Skeptic

El Nino 2015 / 2016

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The CanSIPS, NMME, and CFSv2 models are suggesting that the current +PDO, which has persisted for two years, will continue through the fall (and perhaps early winter) of 2016. Such a long +PDO stretch without a single monthly negative reading would be unprecedented since the early 1940s. We've already seen 25 consecutive months of positive values. Is there any climate feedback that could favor more frequent/intense or long-lived +PDO cycles in a warmer world? Obviously, they've occurred many times on (and off) record.

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

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The CanSIPS, NMME, and CFSv2 models are suggesting that the current +PDO, which has persisted for two years, will continue through the fall (and perhaps early winter) of 2016. Such a long +PDO stretch without a single monthly negative reading would be unprecedented since the early 1940s. We've already seen 25 consecutive months of positive values. Is there any climate feedback that could favor more frequent/intense or long-lived +PDO cycles in a warmer world? Obviously, they've occurred many times on (and off) record.

 

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

Not sure about climate impacts on PDO. PDO has an impact on global temperatures but is hard to separate from ENSO, with temperatures surging since the switch to +PDO/+ENSO.

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