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deltadog03

Arctic Air Model Forecast/Verification II

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Ok everyone, so lets try this again.  Its a lot of work, so it will be slow to update at times.  However, I think its GREAT for everyone! It should help everyone learn about how models are usually AWFUL when it comes to Arctic Airmasses.  Doesn't surprise me that the EURO did the worst, it seems.  I will have full finished report on that later today.  So, we have moisture increasing on Sunday, question is will be it cold enough in the CAD areas, and when do we saturate enough to see measurable QPF.  Will the High hold long enough? will the models bust on kicking out the cold to quickly?  Lets test them.  Here are some cities.  I will list the *Forecasted Low, High. *usually around 12 and 21z* I also want to list the 6z, 12z, 18z, and 00z temps, dew point temps and if any QPF has fallen.  Want to test and see how the models are performing with the CAD.  Especially the PARA.  I will use the 00z FRI, 12z FRI, 00z SAT, 12z SAT and 00z SUN model runs.  Here are the cities: 

 

00z Friday Model Runs

 

BHM: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:         00z:     

MCN: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:         00z:    

ATL:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:          T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:        00z:    

GVL:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T /Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:     18z:         00z:    

AHN:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

AGS:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

GSP:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

CLT:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

GSO: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

RDU:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:        T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

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Ok everyone, so lets try this again.  Its a lot of work, so it will be slow to update at times.  However, I think its GREAT for everyone! It should help everyone learn about how models are usually AWFUL when it comes to Arctic Airmasses.  Doesn't surprise me that the EURO did the worst, it seems.  I will have full finished report on that later today.  So, we have moisture increasing on Sunday, question is will be it cold enough in the CAD areas, and when do we saturate enough to see measurable QPF.  Will the High hold long enough? will the models bust on kicking out the cold to quickly?  Lets test them.  Here are some cities.  I will list the *Forecasted Low, High. *usually around 12 and 21z* I also want to list the 6z, 12z, 18z, and 00z temps, dew point temps and if any QPF has fallen.  Want to test and see how the models are performing with the CAD.  Especially the PARA.  I will use the 00z FRI, 12z FRI, 00z SAT, 12z SAT and 00z SUN model runs.  Here are the cities: 

 

00z Friday Model Runs

 

BHM: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:         00z:     

MCN: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:         00z:    

ATL:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:          T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:        00z:    

GVL:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T /Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:     18z:         00z:    

AHN:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

AGS:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

GSP:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

CLT:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

GSO: NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:         T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:          00z:    

RDU:  NAM:        GFS:        Para:       EURO:        T/Td/QPF: 6z:      12z:      18z:           00z:    

I like this. I would be interested in GFS vs Para GFS for sure. Can't see Euro data so I don't care about it.

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