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Showing results for tags 'Wedge'.
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Onset is in 72 hours. Midlevels have trended even colder on the 12z gfs. Ops seem locked in with some sort of mix of wintry precip through much of the area. Many of us could stay below freezing all day on Sat. Especially the northern tier. It may be a light event but the duration looks unusually long. Could be the biggest event of the year for many of us. That isn't really saying much though. LOL
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I personally think November 2015 will be warmer than average, CFS has strongly been trending warmer than average since August. The CanSIPS model has also been trending warmer than average. Precipitation forecasts from CanSIPs and CFS also analyze above average. Now the Jamstec model is a bit different. It predicts a warmer than average November for areas east of the MS river excluding IL,WI, and MN. But it then predicts a cooler than average November for areas west of the MS river, east of the Rockies. That is the September run and the October run should come in in a couple of days. I do think our "Second Tornado Season", could be good. The last El Nino analogs I found have had Late Fall-Early Winter tornado outbreaks. This next list of outbreaks all happened in El Nino conditions in November. November 22-24, 2004, 2002 Veteran's Day Outbreak, 1987 Arklatex tornado outbreak, and so on.
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Ok everyone, so lets try this again. Its a lot of work, so it will be slow to update at times. However, I think its GREAT for everyone! It should help everyone learn about how models are usually AWFUL when it comes to Arctic Airmasses. Doesn't surprise me that the EURO did the worst, it seems. I will have full finished report on that later today. So, we have moisture increasing on Sunday, question is will be it cold enough in the CAD areas, and when do we saturate enough to see measurable QPF. Will the High hold long enough? will the models bust on kicking out the cold to quickly? Lets test them. Here are some cities. I will list the *Forecasted Low, High. *usually around 12 and 21z* I also want to list the 6z, 12z, 18z, and 00z temps, dew point temps and if any QPF has fallen. Want to test and see how the models are performing with the CAD. Especially the PARA. I will use the 00z FRI, 12z FRI, 00z SAT, 12z SAT and 00z SUN model runs. Here are the cities: 00z Friday Model Runs BHM: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: MCN: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: ATL: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: GVL: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T /Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: AHN: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: AGS: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: GSP: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: CLT: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: GSO: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z: RDU: NAM: GFS: Para: EURO: T/Td/QPF: 6z: 12z: 18z: 00z:
