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Ridingtime

Jerusalem, Israel Winter Weather 2013-2014

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Israel sucked away the whole winter from Europe  :axe:

 

Dec. 15th and still no signs of real winter here ... just some fog in Po valley with highs in the upper 30s, while here in the foothills of the Alps it's sunny since early december with lows in the 30s and highs in the low 50s ... 

 

The situation should change a little in the coming days, but true cold and serious snow seem still a mirage ...

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FWIW, most of Jerusalem's snowstorms of 15 cm or more have occurred when the AO was positive. This event also occurred with an AO+.

 

Fascinating info Don. If you get the chance, I would love to hear more of your statistical analysis regarding such indices like the AO, NAO, etc for Israel, particularly with your thoughts on what the winter ahead could hold. It's crazy all together that we are just in the beginning of winter and snow most often occurs in Israel in January and February. The CFS however does seem to be showing below normal precip and above normal temps for those months, so I am less hopeful that we'll snow again this winter. Still, would like to hear your take on that.

 

Also, to everyone else, I updated my iCloud album with some pics from today where you can see a lot of the aftermath throughout the city. Lots of snow is still on the ground, particularly in parks and grassy areas. Just got finished sledding actually! Glad to hear some of you NE folks finally got some nice snow recently too, enjoy it!

 

https://www.icloud.com/photostream/#A6JEsNWnJHwHMl

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Fascinating info Don. If you get the chance, I would love to hear more of your statistical analysis regarding such indices like the AO, NAO, etc for Israel, particularly with your thoughts on what the winter ahead could hold. It's crazy all together that we are just in the beginning of winter and snow most often occurs in Israel in January and February. The CFS however does seem to be showing below normal precip and above normal temps for those months, so I am less hopeful that we'll snow again this winter. Still, would like to hear your take on that.

 

Also, to everyone else, I updated my iCloud album with some pics from today where you can see a lot of the aftermath throughout the city. Lots of snow is still on the ground, particularly in parks and grassy areas. Just got finished sledding actually! Glad to hear some of you NE folks finally got some nice snow recently too, enjoy it!

 

https://www.icloud.com/photostream/#A6JEsNWnJHwHMl

 

Below is a chart showing the ENSO/AO combinations for Jerusalem's 15 cm or greater snowstorms:

 

12152013_3.jpg

 

Right now, the CFSv2 is not in a timeframe where it has shown much skill. FWIW, if the AO can remain positive, that should increase prospects of cool to near normal readings. Below is a chart for all January dates (1981-2013) when the AO was +1 to +3 and the EPO was -1 to +1:

 

12152013_4.jpg

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Below is a chart showing the ENSO/AO combinations for Jerusalem's 15 cm or greater snowstorms:

 

12152013_3.jpg

 

Right now, the CFSv2 is not in a timeframe where it has shown much skill. FWIW, if the AO can remain positive, that should increase prospects of cool to near normal readings. Below is a chart for all January dates (1981-2013) when the AO was +1 to +3 and the EPO was -1 to +1:

 

12152013_4.jpg

Awesome, thanks Don for this info! 

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Friend in Jerusalem mentioned to me

 

I am pretty sure there are rumors going around that another big storm is coming some time soon, hence this weather blog post: http://weather-it-is.blogspot.co.il

 

But all signs (models, forecasters, etc) point to a pretty warm and dry next week or so. The next time I am going to expect a chance of snow here will probably be in January. 

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